Future Talent Rankings, Part 2: NBA's Best Young Teams 11-20
Ranking teams 11-20 on their young talent under the age of 25
My Future Talent Rankings of the NBA’s top 10 young teams generated lots of questions and disagreement among readers.
Naturally, teams that have good young players but didn’t make the cut — like Chicago, Sacramento and Charlotte — have fans that felt disrespected.
So for Part 2 of my rankings, I’ve decided to dig into the next 10 teams below.
Some of the disagreement was about how specific players were rated.
For instance, there was significant support for Trae Young to be rated as a Tier 1 player (despite both analytics models disputing that notion). Others were frustrated that former All-Star Brandon Ingram got a Tier 3 rating while John Collins, not yet selected as an All-Star, made Tier 2.
And when rookies Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green got higher ratings than NBA All-Stars, that caused dissent too.
Again, to get an accurate ranking, I combined three sources of information.
First, I asked a handful of NBA GMs and scouts to rate each player under 25 into a 1-to-5 tier system. Second, I used two highly regarded analytics models (DARKO and LEBRON) to rate each player into five similar tiers. Third, for NBA rookies, I used the 2021 NBA Draft Tier system I employed just before the draft, but adjusted for likely impact in Years 1 and 2 of their careers. (For example, Cade Cunningham graded out as a Tier 1 originally, but I gave him him a Tier 1.5 designation here.)
Reasonable minds can disagree and the point system allows you to come up with your own ratings. Naturally some readers’ opinions will differ, and some take rosier views of their favorite teams’ young players. Of course, the point system is intended to provide a more objective view, but it involves a degree of subjectivity and projection, making it far from an exact science.
One important point: We are projecting what players will become, not merely summarizing what they have actually done.
Here is the scoring system:
Top 10 player in the NBA = 15 points
Tier 1 (Superstar) = 10
Tier 1.5 (Potential superstar) = 8 (I used this ranking only for rookies)
Tier 2 (All-Star) = 7
Tier 2.5 (Potential All-Star) = 6 (I used this ranking only for rookies)
Tier 3 (Starter) = 4
Tier 3.5 (Potential starter) = 3 (I sed this ranking only for rookies)
Tier 4 (Rotation player) = 2
Tier 5 (Deep rotation player) = 1
I excluded some players under the age of 25 who were on two-way contracts or who do not have a history of making substantial contributions.
For each team, I added the average scores for each qualifying player together.
As a reminder, here were the Top 10 teams:
1. Atlanta Hawks: 29 points
2. Boston Celtics: 28 points
3 (tie). Cleveland Cavaliers: 26 points
3 (tie). Orlando Magic: 26 points
5 (tie). Detroit Pistons: 23 points
5 (tie). Memphis Grizzlies: 24 points
5 (tie). New Orleans Pelicans: 22 points
8 (tie). Minnesota Timberwolves: 21 points
8 (tie). Oklahoma City Thunder: 21 points
10. Houston Rockets: 20 points
Here is how the next 10 teams graded out:
11 (tie). Charlotte Hornets
Total score: 19 points
Player, Age, Tier Ranking (players listed youngest to oldest):
JT Thor | 19 | T5
LaMelo Ball | 20 | T2
Vernon Carey Jr. | 20 | T5
Kai Jones | 20 | T5
James Bouknight | 21 | T4
P.J. Washington | 23 | T3
Miles Bridges | 23 | T4
Jalen McDaniels | 23 | T5
Analysis: Hornets fans were rightly frustrated that their team didn’t make the top 10. But none of the individual rankings feel wrong. Ball might end up in Tier 1, but at the moment he’s not quite an All-Star, making Tier 2 the safer bet. You could make an argument that Bridges is closer to T3 than T4. Bouknight will likely be in T3 eventually. There might be enough minutes at center to bump McDaniels or Carey Jr. up to T4. Jones is a wildcard with T2 talent, but he’s very far away from getting there. The future looks very bright in Charlotte, but it’s still unclear they’ve found a young star to pair with LaMelo.
11 (tie). Chicago Bulls
(Note to readers: This is an excerpt of my Future Power Rankings, Part 2 provided to free subscribers. To get my take on all of the top prospects… you need to be a paid subscriber.
Paid subscribers will also get access to full Mock Drafts, Big Boards, scouting reports on all of the top players in the draft as well as the ability to comment on articles and special discussion boards, Zoom calls and more interaction with me in the coming weeks.)