Who's In and Who's Out of the NBA Draft?
Exploring the pivotal choices at the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline, from surprising stays to strategic exits.
Wednesday marked NBA Draft Withdrawal Day, the final opportunity for college underclassmen and eligible seniors who wish to retain their NCAA eligibility to withdraw their names from the NBA draft and return to school. This year saw a total of 195 players declare for the NBA Draft, a decrease from last year's 242 entrants and significantly lower than the 353 early entry candidates in 2021, which was my inaugural year collaborating with Chad Ford at NBA Big Board.
Impact of NIL on Draft Decisions
A record-low total of 174 U.S. college basketball players declared as early entrants for the 2024 NBA Draft, the fewest since the pandemic. The influence of NIL (name, image, and likeness) had its fingerprints all over the recent withdrawals, with several prospects reportedly opting to return to school due to the potential to earn income comparable to late first-round NBA draft picks. Earlier this month, former Utah State center Great Osobor allegedly secured a $2 million NIL deal upon transferring to Washington.
While it’s difficult to definitively say that Osobor’s deal was a game-changer, it's apparent that fringe first-round picks and NBA Combine participants gained significant bargaining power, enhancing their ability to negotiate higher NIL earnings by choosing to return to school.
A Nostalgic Season Ahead
Next season, college basketball will evoke memories of my youth and the time before the one-and-done era, when college stars typically stayed on campus for multiple years. However, it won’t be exactly the same: while college stars who are not guaranteed first-round picks might stay in school longer, they may also attend two or three different schools due to lenient transfer rules, which essentially allows them to act as free agents on one-year deals. Despite these changes, yesterday marked a victory for college basketball. The 2024-25 season will feature an impressive lineup, including the ACC Player of the Year, the PAC 12 Player of the Year, a first-team All-American, two second-team All-Americans, and two third-team All-Americans.
Stars Returning to the Campus
AP All-Americans returning to college basketball next season include RJ Davis from North Carolina, Mark Sears from Alabama, Caleb Love from Arizona, Johni Broome from Auburn, and Hunter Dickinson from Kansas. Additionally, a highly anticipated recruiting class is expected to dominate the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft.
Noteworthy Non-Declares from Big Board
From Big Board 4.0, the highest-rated prospect who did not declare for the draft was Wake Forest's Hunter Sallis, ranked 17th. Several top 50 prospects from Big Board 3.0 have chosen to return to school, including Zvonimir Ivisic (29), JT Toppin (41), Jamir Watkins (46), and Payton Sandfort (49). Wooga Poplar, Baba Miller, Arthur Kaluma, Alex Karaban, Nique Clifford and Coleman Hawkins, who were featured on previous Big Boards, officially withdrew their names from the NBA draft on Wednesday.
As of 6:00 AM Central Time, Jaxson Robinson and PJ Hall had not yet made an official announcement.
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Here are my insights on five NBA prospects who decided whether to turn professional or return to college at the withdrawal deadline:
IN THE DRAFT
Johnny Furphy
Kansas
Freshman
Wing
Furphy caught the attention of NBA scouts with his impressive mix of size, shooting, rebounding, and energy. However, I'm not convinced that Furphy is a lock for the first round.