The Race for No. 1: Part III

Health, Context, and Production Are Defining the Tightest No. 1 Race in Years

At this point in the season, the race for the number one pick is no longer theoretical. It is happening in real time, night after night, against real competition.

It has been a very long time, if ever, since we have seen three prospects with a legitimate case for being selected first overall. The closest comparison to the 2026 Draft class would be the 2022 NBA Draft, when the Orlando Magic selected Paolo Banchero from Duke, followed by the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets taking Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren and Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr. I felt that particular draft ultimately became a two man race between Banchero and Holmgren.

This year is different in several ways. Not only are there three players who could realistically be number one in almost any draft, but once those top three are off the board, the rest of the class is loaded with high level talent from an extremely productive freshman group. Houston’s Kingston Flemings and Illinois’ Keaton Wagler each had historic performances this past weekend, with Flemings scoring 42 in a loss and Wagler dropping 46 in a road win. If there was ever a time for an organization to own multiple first round picks, this is it.

While names like Wagler, Flemings, and North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson continue to build strong lottery cases, the cream of the crop remains Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, and Duke’s Cameron Boozer.

In Part III of this series, I will outline why each player still has a very real argument for going number one.