The Early Heat Check: NBA Prospects Making Noise in the 2025–26 NBA Draft Race
A look at the breakout performers turning early-season success into draft momentum.
Yes, it’s still early in the college basketball season, and while some standout performances have come against lighter competition, we’ve already seen several prospects tested in marquee matchups against ranked programs. The early returns on this much-hyped draft class suggest it’s living up to the fanfare. The top-tier names are backing up the preseason buzz with strong play, while a few under-the-radar prospects are quickly emerging as legitimate risers. It’s only November, but several future pros are already making statements that could echo deep into the 2025–26 NBA Draft race.
Neoklis Avdalas – Virginia Tech
Avdalas has wasted no time making his mark on college basketball. The 6’7” playmaker from Greece erupted for 33 points, six assists, and five rebounds in an overtime win against Providence, a statement performance that showed why I view him as a lottery-level talent.
Avdalas played with poise well beyond his years, controlling the pace and getting to his sweet spots on the floor. His confidence stood out as he drained step-back jumpers, manipulated defenses in the pick-and-roll, and made key plays off two feet, an area of improvement after previously struggling to finish through contact at the youth level.
What impressed most was how comfortable Avdalas looked as the offensive focal point. He displayed shades of Luka Doncic in his creativity and body control, balancing scoring with playmaking and showing a mature sense of timing and feel.
Consistency and efficiency will remain key areas to monitor. In his season debut, Avdalas shot just 3-13 in a blowout win over Charleston Southern, a reminder of the streakiness that followed him through international play. Against Providence, though, he flipped the script, shooting with rhythm and confidence in one of the most impressive early-season performances by any freshman or 2026 draft prospect.
It is still early, but Avdalas is already showing why he was considered one of Europe’s top young talents. If he maintains this level of play and improves his efficiency, he could see his name rise quickly into the lottery conversation by season’s end.
Caleb Wilson – North Carolina
Wilson has quickly made his presence felt in Chapel Hill. The 6’9” freshman forward turned heads against Kansas, finishing with 24 points on 9-12 shooting, seven rebounds, four steals, and four assists in what looked like an early-season breakout game.
Wilson’s combination of athleticism and energy jumps off the screen. He plays with a relentless motor, impacts the game defensively, and thrives in transition. His passing and chemistry with teammate Henry Veesaar have been pleasant surprises, giving North Carolina another layer of playmaking in the frontcourt.
Offensively, Wilson looked more polished than expected. He knocked down a few turnaround jumpers, a positive sign considering questions about his shooting consistency entering college. He is also shooting 74 percent from the free-throw line on more than seven attempts per game, an encouraging indicator of touch and scoring potential.
What makes Wilson intriguing as an NBA prospect is his versatility. He handles the ball well for his size, can attack off the dribble, and makes smart reads as a passer. His athleticism, motor, and confidence give him a strong foundation to build on.
The next step for Wilson will be proving that he can consistently stretch the floor. If his jumper continues to improve and he sustains this level of effort and production, he will firmly establish himself as one of the top prospects in college basketball and a legitimate contender for a top-10 selection in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Cameron Carr - Baylor
Carr continues to rise, and at this point, he might be the biggest riser of the early college basketball season. I had him outside my first-round projection coming into the draft cycle, but his early play has completely changed that. Right now, Carr looks like a top-15 talent.
At 6’5” with a reported 7’2” wingspan, Carr has NBA size and length for a modern wing. More importantly, he makes jump shots. Now in his third year of college basketball after a quiet stint at Tennessee, Carr has found his rhythm at Baylor, showing poise, confidence, and shot-making ability. Through two games, he is averaging 22 points per game while shooting 55 percent from three on 5.5 attempts per game.
Against Washington, Carr showcased deep NBA range, connecting on several threes well beyond the line. And he has enough offense to create for himself if you chase him off the three-point line. He reminds me of Mikal Bridges, depending on which version of him you look at, since Bridges’ role has fluctuated throughout his NBA career. Carr is similar in that regard— a long, rangy wing who can knock down shots, defend multiple positions, and create just enough offense to keep defenses honest.
Carr’s growth has been one of the early storylines of the season. After two slower years at Tennessee, he now looks like a completely different player. His confidence and ability to shoot from deep have elevated both his game and his draft stock.
In my opinion, he’s Baylor’s best NBA prospect, and if he keeps shooting and defending at this level, he’ll continue to move firmly into the lottery conversation.
Darryn Peterson - Kansas
Peterson faced his first real test of the season in Kansas’s road loss to North Carolina, and even in defeat, he looked the best prospect in the world. He finished with 22 points, three assists, three rebounds, two steals, and a block in a tough environment, showing exactly why he’s widely considered the best guard to enter college basketball in years.
It felt like a typical Darryn Peterson performance. He manipulated pick-and-rolls with patience, drew fouls, and scored efficiently from all three levels. He probably could have done even more, but early in the season it appears Kansas is focused on running its half-court sets rather than simply giving him the ball and letting him go to work. There were stretches where the offense stalled, and it was clear that when Kansas needed a bucket, Peterson was the answer.
He’s clearly the Jayhawks’ best player and primary creator, and as the season progresses, they’ll need to lean on him even more. Defenses are going to trap and key in on him, and how he handles that attention will be an important part of his growth.
Peterson has continued to show growth as a perimeter shooter, taking six threes per game and converting 50 percent, a clear sign of the work he’s put in since his high school days. He’s also getting to the free throw line consistently and showcasing his elite athleticism in transition and around the rim.
Peterson has the talent to explode for a 35- or 40-point game at any time. It’s not a matter of if, but when. He’s that explosive, that dynamic, and that skilled of a scorer.
He remains the number one player on my draft board, and performances like this one, even in a loss, only reinforce why.
AJ Dybantsa - BYU
Dybantsa and BYU had a relatively easy matchup against Holy Cross, but even in that type of game, his physical tools and upside were on full display. What stood out most was how much ground he covers off the dribble. It’s not quite Giannis Antetokounmpo-like, but it’s close. Once he gets a step inside the three-point line, he can explode off two feet and finish above the rim, often within just two dribbles. He creates dunks for himself and makes it look effortless.
Dybantsa is such a dynamic athlete and scorer, and what’s been impressive early is his improvement as a pick-and-roll ball handler. He’s much further along in that area than I expected, particularly when it comes to handling the ball and creating for himself.
In BYU’s season opener against Villanova, he took on a major playmaking role late in the game, and Coach Kevin Young — who runs a pro-style offense — clearly trusted him to close.
It felt like the staff said, “You’re our best player, and we’re putting the ball in your hands,” and Dybantsa delivered.
Against Holy Cross, though, a few plays stood out that reminded me why I still have Darryn Peterson slightly ahead of him in my rankings.
Peterson consistently takes open jumpers, while Dybantsa sometimes passes them up to attack the rim in traffic. For someone with Dybantsa’s talent, I’d like to see him let those catch-and-shoot opportunities fly. Doing so would not only make him a more complete scorer but would also open up driving lanes and make him even harder to defend.
He’s already one of the toughest players in the country to contain, but if he embraces the perimeter jumper more consistently, Dybantsa’s ceiling becomes even higher.
Lebaron Philon - Alabama
Philon is off to a blazing start this season. Now with full control of the Crimson Tide offense and no longer sharing point guard duties with Mark Sears, Philon has clearly established himself as the team’s lead guard. He still shares some ball-handling responsibilities with Aiden Holloway, but make no mistake — Philon is the straw that stirs the drink in Tuscaloosa.
His confidence and improved shooting have been immediately noticeable. Philon put on an outstanding performance against St. John’s in New York, scoring 25 points on 10-of-17 shooting to go along with three rebounds and three assists. He also buried a clutch three-pointer in crunch time to help seal the win. Throughout the game, Philon showcased his ability to create off the dribble, knocking down step-back jumpers, getting into the paint, and finishing efficiently around the rim.
Playing in Alabama’s pro-style offense, Philon will have the ball in his hands frequently this season, giving him every opportunity to prove he can score and make plays at an NBA level. If he continues on this trajectory, he could end up being the second point guard off the board in the 2026 NBA Draft behind Mikel Brown Jr. I currently have him ranked ahead of Bennett Stirtz.
While Philon remains more of a below-the-rim athlete, his improved touch and decision-making allow him to compensate effectively. Finishing against length is still something to monitor, but his progress since testing the NBA Draft waters last spring is undeniable.
Philon looks like a completely different player this year, and returning to school appears to have been the right move. If his jumper continues to develop, he has a chance to carve out a long-term role in the league — potentially as an Andrew Nembhard-type guard, capable of running an offense, spacing the floor, and making smart reads within a team-first system.
Mikel Brown Jr. - Louisville
Mikel Brown Jr. had a fantastic showing in Louisville’s rivalry matchup against Kentucky. It was everything you’d expect from two blue-blood, ranked programs — fast-paced, high-intensity basketball in front of a loud home crowd. And Brown rose to the occasion, once again proving why I’ve had him projected as a top-five pick since the summer.
Brown scored 20 of his 29 points in the first half, setting the tone early and carrying Louisville’s offense. His 29 points on 8-of-16 shooting and 10-of-11 from the foul line were the most by a Louisville freshman in over 10 years, and he also added five assists in the win.
Brown continues to impress with his polish and maturity. He knocks down open jumpers, splashes threes off the dribble, and consistently creates his own shot. Brown was excellent operating in the pick-and-roll, showcasing advanced feel and vision. He threw several perfectly timed pocket passes, punished bigs in drop coverage, and finished at the rim with touch and confidence. When he’s converting those layups, he becomes nearly impossible to guard. His combination of deep shooting range and playmaking makes him a nightmare for defenses.
What separates Brown is his balance between scoring aggression and unselfishness. He’s not afraid to shoot, but he always makes the right read and keeps his teammates involved. Against Kentucky, he was aggressive in attacking the paint, earning eight free-throw attempts, a sign of his growing confidence and control.
These are the traits you want to see in a potential franchise point guard. Brown looks every bit the part of a player you can build around at the next level. Considering the opponent and the stage, his performance was outstanding and it only reinforced what I already believe: Mikel Brown Jr. is a top-five pick in this draft class.
 |
|
I think the path for Dybantsa to reclaim #1 is to lean into his defense more. I hardly hear folks talk about him on that end of the floor. Think he is already solid at that end but could be way better. He has had a couple of moments defensively throughout his young career that have really wowed me. Dare I say even more so than his scoring ability? Maybe I am crazy here!