The Alijah Arenas Dilemma: How Do You Evaluate an Unusual Freshman Year?
After a car accident, knee surgery and just 14 games at USC, how much should we really take away from Arenas’ inefficient freshman season?
One of the biggest areas of growth for me as an evaluator and writer has been learning to be transparent when I don’t have all the answers, and there may not be a prospect in the potential 2027 NBA Draft class I’m more conflicted about than Alijah Arenas.
He’s easily one of the most difficult players for me to evaluate because if you just watch the flashes and some of what he showed in short stints during his freshman season at USC, you can see why he’s intriguing. You can see why there are parts of his game that are so appealing, and why he was a McDonald’s All-American and highly touted recruit who entered college with plenty of hype.
Then there’s the fact that he’s the son of former NBA All-Star Gilbert Arenas, who has become one of the more outspoken personalities in basketball media. That only added to the attention surrounding him before he ever played a college game.
At 6’6” and around 200 pounds, Arenas has NBA positional size on the wing. He has some real juice off the dribble, offensive creativity and a lot to like as a shot maker.
But when you look beyond the flashes and get into the numbers, the picture becomes much more complicated.
Arenas averaged 14.1 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game as a freshman. But the shooting splits were, let’s just be honest, bad.
He shot 34 percent from the floor and 21 percent from three over just 14 games. He also finished his freshman season with more turnovers than assists, and his shot selection featured more than its share of head-scratching decisions and difficult attempts.
The numbers are concerning.
The question I’ve struggled with throughout this offseason is how much should we actually hold against him?
