Ranking the Top 10 NBA Rookie of the Year Contenders
Will Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green or Evan Mobley win Rookie of the Year? Based on winners from past years, here's the breakdown for the 2021-22 ROY race.
With the NBA Draft, the flurry of offseason moves and the Vegas Summer League behind us, we can get a much better read on how this season’s NBA rookies will fare.
In particular, we know more about the roles expected for this year’s top rookies. While talent certainly matters in a Rookie of the Year race, opportunity is paramount.
As we have seen, the winner isn’t always the best or most talented player — the Rookie of the Year needs the right combination of talent, minutes, and a leading role to play.
Last season, the top three vote getters averaged at least 27 mpg. In 2019 the top three averaged at least 27.8. In 2018, it was 30.1 mpg.
The second key metric appears to be points per game. In 2018 the top three scored at least 16.3 ppg. In 2019 the top three scored at least 15.3 ppg. In 2020 it was only 13 ppg, but that’s because 13 ppg was the third highest point total of any rookie that year. Moreover, in the past eight years the winner was in the top three, and usually the top two, in scoring for rookies that year.
If we dig even further, ESPN’s Kevin Pelton wrote in a 2015 ESPN.com piece that the rookie with the highest combined per-game averages of points, rebounds and assists per game won the award in 26 of 27 races.
So, when predicting a ROY, I’m not looking for who the best player will be in five years. I’m projecting who will have at least 27 mpg and 15 ppg — and a player who can play 70 games or more, which is usually the threshold in a typical year. In a word, opportunity.
Here’s my early guess on the top 10 candidates, in order:
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