Overlooked Potential: Part I: GG Jackson's Historic Rookie Season
From Misjudged Perceptions and Youthful Mistakes to Joining Legends Like LeBron, Kobe, and Durant
In part one of this two-part series, I'll uncover how NBA teams missed out on two breakout players from the 2023-24 NBA season, GG Jackson and Derrick Jones Jr., and what we can learn from an evaluation standpoint on future prospects. GG Jackson was a prep phenom whose draft stock tumbled due to poor intel and analytics but found success as a rookie. Part two will cover Derrick Jones Jr., who was the opposite—a raw talent who went undrafted in 2016 and had to fight his way onto an NBA roster. Now in his eighth year, he's experiencing career highs and playing a pivotal role in the Dallas Mavericks' run to the Western Conference Finals as he enters free agency.
GG Jackson's Journey
The Enigma of GG Jackson
Monday, the NBA announced that Memphis Grizzlies forward GG Jackson II was honored as one of the top rookies in the league by being named to the 2023-24 NBA All-Rookie Second Team.
Jackson, selected with the 45th overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, was the only second-round pick to make an all-rookie team this season. He finished fourth among rookies, averaging 14.6 points per game.
Jackson broke Kobe Bryant's record as the youngest player in NBA history to score more than 25 points off the bench. He averaged 20.4 points in his final 18 appearances this season, reaching double figures in every game and averaging 37.5 points over his final two contests.
Leaving many to wonder, how did Jackson, who joined the ranks of LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Kevin Durant by setting NBA scoring records for teenagers, fall so far in the 2023 NBA Draft?
Ty Ellis, an Optimal Performance Coach with over 20 years of professional basketball experience as a player and coach in the G-League, NBA, and USA Basketball, explains how a talent like Jackson can be misevaluated:
I think a lot of teams, they put a lot of emphasis on bad intel and they (NBA decision makers) forget they were once college kids or 18-year-old kids or 17-year-old kids. These young men don't know how to be famous or how to be professionals because nobody has taught them.
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High School Career
Jackson, the No. 1 player from the high school class of 2023, made the jump from high school junior to college freshman, starting his NCAA career at 17 years old.
Initially, he committed to playing college basketball at North Carolina shortly after finishing his junior season. However, after being named MVP of the NBPA Top 100 camp, rumors began to circulate that he might reclassify and skip his senior season. Subsequently, Jackson decommitted from UNC, reclassified to the class of 2022, and enrolled at South Carolina, where he became the highest-ranked recruit in the school's history.
His enrollment at South Carolina and his December 17, 2004 birthdate made him eligible for the loaded 2023 draft, featuring Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, and Brandon Miller.
NBA rules state that all drafted players must be at least 19 years old during the calendar year of the draft, making Jackson eligible by only 14 days.
I was familiar with Jackson's game and had him as my top candidate to be the first pick in the 2024 draft, which was projected to be significantly weaker and lacking the franchise-altering talents of the 2023 class.
Prior to his decision to reclassify, I did a deep dive into Jackson's film from the 2022 Nike EYBL campaign. I was immediately blown away by his progression, most notably his improved handle, shooting, and ability to create for himself at 6’9”.
In the summer of 2021, Jackson was a reluctant outside shooter who did most of his scoring around the rim as an athletic finisher and rim runner. A year later, he was confidently shooting from deep, draining contested pull-up jumpers off the bounce, and attacking slow-footed defenders in space.
I was so impressed with what I saw on film that I made a video breakdown on why I believed the addition of Jackson made a strong 2023 NBA draft class even more potent given his recent trajectory.
The College Experience and Draft Process
After a roller-coaster freshman season that led to questions about his maturity, style of play, and efficiency, I remained bullish on Jackson's long-term potential and believed he was worthy of a top-five pick.
In my eyes, Jackson's upside screamed star potential. Before his 18th birthday, he averaged 16.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game while showing an advanced handle for his size, age, and position. He possessed a rare blend of size, coordination, fluidity, and athleticism on top of his unique handle and promise as a shotmaker.
I'm a big fan of offensive creativity and players who can generate their own offense off the dribble. It's why I preferred Paolo Banchero over Chet Holmgren and Jabari Smith by a sizeable margin in the 2022 draft, and it was my main argument for Jackson as a lottery pick last June.
As Jackson entered the pre-draft process, he became one of the more polarizing players in the 2023 draft class despite his undeniable talent and production in the SEC, one of the most competitive conferences in college basketball. Critics were quick to highlight his 38/32/67 shooting splits, poor body language, low assist numbers, South Carolina's 11-21 record, and the infamous Instagram live video where he voiced his frustrations moments after a loss to Arkansas.
Draft Night: The 45th Pick
Jackson was well aware of the rumors that his draft stock was falling, and the murmurs grew louder after his Pro Day at the NBA Combine. During a solo workout in front of NBA personnel, he appeared winded and out of shape due to being under the weather and dealing with bronchitis.
However, nothing could have prepared him for what happened on draft night when he fell to the Memphis Grizzlies with the 45th pick.
It appeared as if Jackson made a huge mistake by reclassifying and entering college early as a 17-year-old. This decision led to chatter and questions about whether his NBA stock would have been higher if he had stuck with his initial commitment and gone to North Carolina.
Jackson on draft night after falling out of the first round:
I’m boiling inside right now — definitely. But at the end of the day, still a huge blessing. And you know, I started from the bottom and became the No. 1 recruit in high school. I feel like I’m just starting from the bottom again. I’ve got to work my way back to the top.
Rookie Season: Proving the Doubters Wrong
Jackson signed a two-way contract with the Memphis Grizzlies after showing promise in the 2023 Salt Lake City Summer League and NBA2K24 Summer League in Las Vegas, averaging 10.6 points and 4.8 rebounds in 20.9 minutes over eight games.
Jackson began the season with the Memphis Hustle in the G League, where averaged 20 points and 7.3 rebounds over 22 games. A series of injuries on the Grizzlies roster led to Jackson getting the big call in January.
And he never looked back.
On February 8, Jackson scored a then career-high 27 points, along with nine rebounds, one assist, and one steal in a 118-110 loss to the Chicago Bulls. He shot 9-of-18 from the field, including 4-of-9 from three-point range, in 32 minutes off the bench. This historic performance made him the youngest player in history to score at least 25 points off the bench (19 years, 53 days) in an NBA game. He was rewarded with a standard contract the following day.
Jackson made his starting debut against the Oklahoma City Thunder, scoring 30 points. Five days later, he dropped 35 points, including seven three-pointers, against the Golden State Warriors, becoming the youngest player in NBA history to make seven threes in a game.
In the regular season finale against the Denver Nuggets, Jackson became the youngest player in NBA history to record 40 points and 10 rebounds in a game. His 44 points also set the record for the most points by a rookie in Grizzlies franchise history.
Jackson finished the season starting 18 games and playing in 48 total for the Grizzlies. Over his final 17 contests, he averaged 19 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists in 33.2 minutes per game.
He made history by becoming the first teenage rookie to earn All-Rookie honors as a non-first-rounder in NBA history.
Reflection: What we learned from GG Jackson's Story
Depending on who you speak with, Jackson’s draft night dive was related to analytics, poor intel and his inner circle.
Analytics
The use of analytics in scouting NBA prospects has become increasingly sophisticated. Rather than relying solely on traditional accounting stats like points per game or field goal percentage, teams are using advanced metrics like effective field goal, assist and turnover rate and box-plus-minus. These analytics can pinpoint specific strengths and weaknesses, allowing teams to make data-driven decisions on draft picks.
According the analytics, Jackson graded out as an inefficient gunner with a high 29.1% usage rate.
Behind the numbers:
Negative Box-Plus-Minus: Jackson was one of just three freshman drafted in the last 15 years a negative box-plus-minus
Effective Field Goal Rate: 44.4%
Assist Rate: 6.6%
Turnover Rate: 17.7%
Free Throw Rate: 26.9% on 292 2-Point Field Goal Attempts
3-Point Shooting: 32.4% from three on 10.2 3-point attempts per 100 possessions
Scoring Efficiency:
30.7% from two
32.5% from three
56% at the rim
34.2% off the catch
30.5% off the bounce
Ty Ellis on the role of data-driven decisions in draft picks:
Sometimes teams just miss. Sometimes the analytics don't spit out a formula that says this guy is a really good player or has a potential. Look at Jalen Brunson. He's a perfect example. I think they (NBA teams) just missed (on Brunson), and they missed on Jackson, and he kept a chip on his shoulder.
Bad Intel
The biggest knock on Jackson was his maturity or lacktherof.
Last spring, Jackson had become a mystery leading up to the NBA combine. He opted to bypass the bigger sports agencies and was represented by his mother, LaKeysha Alston, along with manager Donnell Bruce. Opinions and stories surrounding his character and family began to circulate.
However, nobody I spoke with could provide a specific example of off-the-court concerns. Every comment circled back to his Instagram live video, where he was vocal about the lack of touches in late-game situations, with immaturity being the common theme.
Jackson on Instagram live moments after close 65-63 defeat loss Arkansas last February:
Bro I’m not even getting plays drawn up for me in the crunch time bro.
The more negative things I heard about his name and his game, the more intrigued I became. My curiosity grew, and I was eager to do a feature story on who I believed was the biggest wildcard in the 2023 draft.
The mainstream NBA Draft platforms like ESPN, The Athletic, Bleacher Report, The Ringer, Yahoo, Tankathon, For the Win, CBS, and No Ceilings ranked him as the 21st prospect based on the consensus outlook of all their draft boards combined.
Which I believed was too low.
Says an college recruiting analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity:
He's got the wrong people around him. They’re going to screw up his career.
Added an NBA scout prior to the draft:
I think some teams are concerned about his maturity. He'll still be 18 at the start of training camp, and he's never really lived away from home.
Says another scout:
He’s talented, but he’s not ready for the NBA lifestyle and all that comes with the money and free time.
While I can’t say I did a crazy deep dive into his intel, I had the opportunity to get to know GG in the weeks leading up to pre-draft workouts with teams, and I never saw anything that would make me uneasy about selecting him with a high draft pick.
Based on his social media posts, I discovered that Jackson was training in the Dallas area. I attempted to contact him through direct messages and even sent a proposal offering to barter video services in exchange for access to Jackson at the EXOS training facility. EXOS is more known for football training than basketball, and I had a direct contact since I created social media content for their 2021 NFL draft class two years prior.
Before EXOS could respond to my offer, I coincidentally ran into Jackson while filming content for Rayan Rupert, who was in Dallas training with Keyonte George and Mike Miles Jr. under Tim Martin, a well-known skills trainer who also trains Victor Wembanyama.
Jackson would do individual skills training with his longtime trainer Marseilles Brown in the mornings, then travel 40 minutes south to engage in situational one-on-one matchups with other NBA prospects working out with Martin.
Upon meeting Jackson for the first time, I was greeted with a loud, "Rafael Barlowe?" he said emphatically. “I know exactly who you are!" he exclaimed, shaking my hand. "Thank you. You always have my back."
That was my first glimpse of GG's energy and his childlike innocence, which is unusual for a star athlete in the social media age, where prospects often develop a sense of entitlement at an early age.
While most players preferred to train with music pumping through speakers in the background, Jackson only needed his personal energy and love for basketball to set the tone for his workouts.
One minute he was being hard on himself for missing consecutive NBA 3-pointers; the next, he was singing and dancing, entertaining my then 9-month-old son during a water break between drills.
“Where are the character issues?” I thought to myself.
GG Jackson on his reputation:
The biggest misconception about me is definitely my attitude and behavior. I know it might show a lot on the court sometimes, but I'm just a very competitive guy and I don't like to lose. I'm pretty sure every basketball player likes to say that, but losing really irks my nerves.
South Carolina Basketball Coach LaMont Paris on GG Jackson:
“As a basketball player, (NBA teams) do a good job of evaluating that, but when they asked me, I talked about who he is as a person, and he’s a superstar as a person, to be honest. I always tell them, if you draft him, and the basketball works out the way I think it’ll work out, you’ll have a superstar on your hands.
Inner Circle
Despite a 25-year age difference, I found out we had a lot in common. Our fathers were both pastors, we spent much of our childhood in the church, shared a love for basketball, and understood the pressures that come with being the son of a preacher.
Although I didn't have an ounce of GG's talent, I grew up with a strong support system of positive male role models who attended all my basketball games, yelled my name after positive plays and had my best interests in mind, similar to Jackson.
While it was common for prospects to prepare for the draft in hot spots like Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Miami, Jackson was surrounded by his father Bishop Gregory Jackson, trainer, and manager in the Dallas area. When his father was back home working in South Carolina, his uncle represented the family in his absence.
There was no entourage, everyone had a role from rebounding, passing to driving. Jackson’s circle was tighter than a college students budget.
Almost every move made by Jackson’s camp was a point of conversation. Even the decision to train at EXOS was scrutinized by rival agents.
“Why would he go with a football guy to represent him? “ asked an NBA agent.
The "football guy" was Donnell Bruce, a former Clemson basketball letterman and the owner and CEO of Famo Sports, a sports management company created in 2010 to help athletes and their families stay connected both spiritually and financially throughout their careers and beyond.
Bruce represents several professional athletes, including Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Travon Walker, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Though unorthodox, Bruce had a plan to implement NFL-style training in Jackson’s pre-draft process to prepare the youngest player in the league for the NBA’s grueling schedule.
Bruce reflecting on how training at EXOS helped prepare Jackson for his surprising rookie season:
I think what it did is it, first of all, it changed his mind frame. It made him understand the rigorous days of getting up early and working on becoming an NBA player. But it also made his body stronger. He gained five to seven pounds, he became faster and stronger. And if you watched him during the course of the year, one of the advantages he had playing the 3 and the 4, especially when he played the power forward, is he was faster. He was quicker off the dribble. Whereas if you watched him in the SEC his freshman year, I mean, you could see he was talented. He could handle the ball. But he wasn’t as explosive. This year he was catching lobs and blocking shots above the rim. He got a lot more explosive and we believe that the time in Dallas had a lot to do with that along with the combination of working with Memphis’ staff.
Bruce added:
I thought outside the box. The kid has a lot of basketball talent. He's already skilled offensively. If I can help make him bigger and a lot faster and stronger, then what do we have? Do we have Jonathan Kuminga? Do we have LeBron James? I didn't care what other people thought. I've been doing football successfully, having 300 pounders run fast times. So I'm like, what can I do with a basketball player?
Reevaluating the Draft Process: The Importance of Intel in the Draft Process
Ellis, the founder of The Ellis Performance Group, motivational speaker and mindset coach, shared his strong opinions on how teams may overvalue intel and the importance of understanding each prospect's background.
He suggested I look up a Denzel Washington interview during the promotion of the movie "Fences," which is an adaptation of August Wilson's 1985 play about an African-American family in 1950s Pittsburgh.
In a 1990 essay, August Wilson made it clear that he would only permit a Black director to direct his Tony-winning play "Fences," as he believed the director needed to have an understanding of Black culture. Hollywood attempted to get "Fences" made with a white director, but Wilson refused.
Denzel Washington agreed with Wilson’s demands:
It’s not color, it’s culture. Steven Spielberg did Schindler’s List. Martin Scorsese did Goodfellas, right? Steven Spielberg could direct Goodfellas. Martin Scorsese probably could have done a good job with Schindler’s List. But there are cultural differences. I know, you know, we all know what it is when a hot comb hits your head on a Sunday morning, what it smells like. That’s a cultural difference, not just color difference.
Ellis further explained how culture impacts intel on prospects and how it relates to Washington’s comments:
In black culture, it’s common for a kid who grew up going to church every day to seem immature because they were sheltered. Intel is black and white; to get all the color, you have to understand the culture. For example, if a kid smoked marijuana in college, maybe it helped him cope with PTSD from his cousin getting killed or the stress of his parents struggling to survive while he's living his best life at a Power Five school with all the amenities.
So, I think the intel is black and white, and the culture provides the color. Would you rather watch a show in color or black and white? That’s the biggest problem—basketball is a predominantly Black or African-American sport, but we have predominantly white decision-makers. Which is not a bad thing, I'm not I'm not saying that in a negative way; it’s just more than black and white. Analytics don’t tell the whole story but provide a foundation to build on. Analytics are great, but they don’t provide the entire color.
Adds Bruce:
The kid (Jackson) was not without fault; he did things, but they really overblew what he did, focusing on flaws and other stuff and it just snowballed. When there's a kid as talented as GG with some off-the-court questions, he'll generally still go in the first round if he has that type of talent. You know, top 10 rookie class type talent. You don't fall to 45. As a believer in God, I kept saying to the parents, even when we thought he was going to be a lottery pick, we just wanted to go to the right team. That's what I kept saying from freshman year on. We just wanted to go to the right team because you can go number two or three and it might not work out.
After finding out he made the All-Rookie Team, Jackson went live on Instagram, ironically where he had his lowest moment during his freshman season, to express his thoughts on emotions:
They said he needed one more year in college. They said I was selfish and that I couldn't play with teammates. They let me fall to 45. I ain't gonna get up here and destroy my image one more time, I just came to say it don't matter where you start, and y'all have heard this saying before, it's about how you finish."
And the right team with the right opportunity was the Memphis Grizzlies.
I listened to most episodes of your podcast last draft cycle and heard you talk about G.G and I just couldn't buy it. Completely wrong, you really nailed it with this guy by doing more of the hard work no one else was willing or thoughtful enough to do. Great piece, really well written.
This article is who you are R B, transparent, honest and easy to read!
GOD places people in your lives for different reasons! I’m certainly glad HE placed us In each others. Spot on my Brother