My Biggest Draft Mistakes

Here are 10 players I really missed on during my 20+ years covering the NBA Draft

Jul 12, 2021

(Note to readers: This is an excerpt of My Biggest Draft Mistakes provided to free subscribers. To see all 10 you need to be a paid subscriber. Click button below to read the full version.)

My Biggest Draft Mistakes Full Version

I began covering the NBA Draft for ESPN 20 years ago. In my 17 years at ESPN, I released hundreds of mock drafts, big boards, stock watches, draft grades and other NBA prospect evaluations.

It would be nice to report that I have been right 100% of the time, especially on the big-time prospects.

But … no.

The fact is, I’ve had some major misses. Such is the life of a draft “expert.”

The 10 cases below are, in my view, my biggest mistakes in judging prospects. Of course, they are also the prospects who have taught me the most about how to be a better draft analyst.

A quick word about my draft evaluation process:

The first info I get on a prospect usually comes directly from NBA teams -- in particular, their scouts and executives. That information pipeline stays open all the way through the draft, of course, and to some degree my evaluation is a synthesis of what I’m hearing. Each year this has involved hundreds of conversations with reliable sources: face-to-face chats, phone calls, text messages and so on.

At the same time, I have spent thousands of hours on the road: watching games, meeting prospects, talking to coaches and trainers, etc. And I watch plenty of prospect video as well.

When I write, I try to be clear about when I’m reporting a consensus and when I’m providing my own opinion. But ultimately, all my evaluations have my name on them.

Here are the 10 prospects that have surprised me the most, for better and worse.

1. Darko Miličić

No. 2 pick in the 2003 NBA Draft

My name will forever be tied to Darko.

Before the 2003 draft, I reported extensively on him over a period of several months. I first met Darko in late 2002 during a scouting trip to Serbia with a handful of NBA scouts. He blew me away with his athleticism and skill for his size and age (he was just 17 years old at the time). Immediately he looked to me like the second-best prospect in the draft, behind only LeBron James.

That impression deepened in the spring of 2003 when I was present for two workouts: an impromptu session conducted by the Detroit Pistons in New York as the Pistons prepared for a playoff game and an official workout for the Pistons in Auburn Hills a few weeks before the draft.

Some of the hyperbole attached to my name didn’t actually come from me. Will Robinson, one of the Pistons’ long-time scouts, said after the second workout: “Darko reminds me of a young Wilt Chamberlain. He's going to own the game. Own the game. We're going to have to build a new arena!” And for the record, no, I didn’t draft him for the Pistons, nor did I advocate for him directly to Pistons GM Joe Dumars.

Nevertheless, I loved Darko as a prospect. If I had been the Pistons, I would've taken him at No. 2. I gave the team an “A” on draft night.

And … I was wrong. The Pistons passed on Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade to take Darko. He could barely get in a game during his two-and-a-half year stint in Detroit (although much of that had to do with the Pistons’ status as a title contender) before the Pistons traded him to the Orlando Magic for a future first-round pick that became Rodney Stuckey.

Darko had a solid half-season in Orlando, a decent year in Memphis and another solid season in Minnesota. He ended up averaging 6 pts, 4.2 rebs, 0.9 assists and 1.3 blocks per game and was out of the league by the age of 27.

No, he didn’t own the game.

He wasn’t the only international prospect I missed on badly during a stint between 2002-2006 when I went nuts for international players. Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Majec Lampe, Pavel Podkolzine and others could have made this list too.

Some people around the league called me Chad Fordavitch during that time. I deserved it.

I got more realistic about international prospects over time and was less inclined to buy into the hype, especially when they weren’t playing major roles in a good league overseas. Which leads me to ...

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo

15th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft

Antetokounmpo was a young prospect playing in the second division in Greece when NBA teams began taking notice. Blessed with elite length and athleticism and a great feel for the game, he drew lots of attention from both NBA scouts and me before the 2013 draft.

However, I had serious questions about him. I had been burned in the past by prospects who put up good numbers against poor competition, and that concern felt especially pertinent because Antetokounmpo had such a huge athletic advantage over his opponents in Greece. I also had major concerns about his jump shot.

After the Bucks selected Antetokounmpo, I gave them a draft grade of “Incomplete” and tweeted, “Antetokounmpo is 1 to 2 years away from playing minutes on a NBA team. That's a very expensive D League player.”

Chad Ford @chadfordinsider

Antetokounmpo is 1 to 2 years away from playing minutes on a NBA team. That's a very expensive D League player.

Yikes. Not only did Antetokounmpo end up playing in the NBA right away, he started 23 games his rookie year and 71 games in his second year. While he wasn’t yet the Giannis we know today, it was clear by the end of his first season that the Bucks had someone special on their hands. Now he’s a five-time All-Star who has won two MVP awards.

Clearly, I had overcorrected in evaluating raw international players.

3. ???

(Note to readers: This is an excerpt of My Biggest Draft Mistakes provided to free subscribers. To see all 10 you need to be a paid subscriber. Click button below to read the full version.