Lottery Mock Draft
Predicting what lottery teams would do if they land the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th picks in the 2021 NBA Draft
(Note to readers: This is an excerpt of the Lottery Mock Draft provided to free subscribers. To see analysis on all 14 lottery teams you need to be a paid subscriber. Click the button below to subscribe and get the full version w/ a special $34 off a yearly sub.)
We will debut Mock Draft 2.0 a few minutes after the NBA Draft Lottery, which begins Tuesday, June 22, at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Once we have the lottery results, we’ll finally know the order for the 2021 NBA Draft -- and have a better idea exactly how the draft might play out, team by team.
In the meantime, I’ve been gathering intel from lottery teams to determine which players they’ll prioritize if they land in the top four of the draft. (The lottery decides which teams get picks 1 to 4, with the remainder of the draft order decided by W-L record.)
There appears to be a consensus No. 1 pick -- Oklahoma State’s Cade Cunningham was the choice in 12 of the 14 scenarios. For the No. 2 pick, USC’s Evan Mobley was the overwhelming favorite. The G League Ignite’s Jalen Green and Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs are heavily in the mix for spots 3 and 4 on draft boards. Florida State’s Scottie Barnes and the G League Ignite’s Jonathan Kuminga are also in the mix for the fourth spot for a handful of teams. Barnes definitely seems to be the prospect that has the best shot of beating out Kuminga as a top-5 pick.
There are several reasons for the mix of opinions beyond the quality of the prospects. Teams have different needs, are in different places in their rebuild, have various appetites for risks or just prefer certain types of players.
Every team on this list has a chance to make the top four, of course. Since the NBA began the draft lottery in 1985, the team with the worst record has won only eight times (including four times in a row, 2015 to 2018). Five teams have won the lottery with less than a 5% chance. The Orlando Magic won the lottery in 1993 with just a 1.52% chance, and the Chicago Bulls won the lottery in 2008 with just a 1.7% chance. So the lottery is fairly wide open.
What follows is a team-by-team guide. What are each team’s odds of winning the lottery? Which player(s) would they draft with the first, second, third or fourth pick?
Houston Rockets
Lottery odds: 52.1% chance of landing a top-4 pick
Pick #1 (14%), #2 (13.4%), #3 (12.7%), #4 (11.9%)
No. 1 pick: Cade Cunningham
No. 2 pick: Evan Mobley
No. 3 pick: Jalen Green
No. 4 pick: Jalen Suggs
The Rockets have won the draft lottery once, in 2002, and they selected Yao Ming.
That 52.1% chance of landing a top-4 pick is particularly significant for the Rockets. If they end up with the fifth pick, they must send the pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder. For a team in a major rebuild, that coin flip for an all-or-nothing chance at an elite prospect is going to be pretty harrowing.
The Rockets have only a limited foundation to build upon. John Wall will be 31 years old before next season. Christian Wood can give you 20 and 10 per night. While Kevin Porter Jr. has a ton of talent, the question is whether he can reach his ceiling.
If Houston does get the top pick, Cunningham appears to be a no-brainer. Not only is he the most highly regarded prospect in the draft, but he fits perfectly as a ballhandling wing who can make plays for others, stretch the floor and defend multiple positions.
The Rockets’ top four echoes our Big Board 5.0: Cunningham is followed by Mobley, Green and Suggs. Any of those players would offer a long-term upgrade in Houston.
Detroit Pistons
Lottery odds: 52.1% chance of landing a top-4 pick
Pick #1 (14%), #2 (13.4%), #3 (12.7%), #4 (11.9%)
No. 1 pick: Cade Cunningham
No. 2 pick: Jalen Green
No. 3 pick: Evan Mobley
No. 4 pick: Jalen Suggs
The Pistons have never won the draft lottery. Their highest selection was the No. 2 pick in the 2003 NBA Draft, when they infamously selected Darko Milicic (which was all my fault).
The Pistons got a quick start on their rebuild in last year’s draft with three first-round picks: Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart and Saddiq Bey. Bey was the standout in the early going, but Stewart and Hayes are also considered long-term building blocks. However, none of those players have the star power or potential of the top five prospects this year.
If the Pistons land the No. 1 pick, expect them to take Cunningham, even though he does duplicate some of Bey’s skillset.
At No. 2, Detroit would have a tough choice between Green and Mobley. Both fit needs for the Pistons and the organization is a major fan of both players.
I gave the edge to Green in my latest Mock Draft because of the potential offensive firepower he would give to a Detroit team that desperately needs it. For a team trying to regain an identity, Green could help put the Pistons back on the NBA map. Reinforcing that is a growing sense among NBA scouts that Green has the most star potential of anyone in the draft.
Orlando Magic
Lottery odds: 52.1% chance of landing a top-4 pick
Pick #1 (14%), #2 (13.4%), #3 (12.7%), #4 (11.9%)
No. 1 pick: Cade Cunningham
No. 2 pick: Evan Mobley
No. 3 pick: Jalen Green
No. 4 pick: Scottie Barnes
Orlando has won the No. 1 pick three times -- in 1992 (when the Magic selected Shaquille O’Neal), 1993 (Chris Webber, who was traded to Golden State) and 2004 (Dwight Howard).
The Magic are in the midst of another major rebuild after several years’ worth of lottery picks failed to develop, were traded away and/or suffered injuries, including Aaron Gordon, Mario Hezonja, Jonathan Isaac, Mo Bamba and Markelle Fultz (acquired by trade). Any of the top five prospects in this draft would immediately be the highest-ceiling player on the Orlando roster.
Cunningham has the game to gel an athletic but underskilled roster. He’s exactly what the Magic have needed the past few years.
After that, you can make an argument for any of the other top prospects. Mobley might be a nice fit on the front line next to Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr., especially given Isaac’s long-term future is uncertain. Green might be a little redundant, but the team is desperate for scoring and he’s the best scorer in the draft.
And look out for Scottie Barnes here, as he is the type of long, versatile point power forward that really intrigues the Magic.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Lottery odds: 45.1% chance of landing a top-4 pick
Pick #1 (11.5%), #2 (11.4%), #3 (11.2%), #4 (11.0%)
No. 1 pick: ???
No. 2 pick: ???
No. 3 pick: ???
No. 4 pick: ???
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