Big NBA Draft Questions: Seven Sensational Freshmen and Why We're Watching Them
NBA scouts provide their takes and worries about the star-studded NCAA freshmen class
The return of college basketball is still a few days away. Meanwhile, NBA scouts and agents have had access to Pro Days, closed scrimmages and friendly matchups across the country.
That means they’ve had an early look at a freshman class that should produce 20 or more one-and-done prospects for the June 22 NBA Draft.
To provide you with a guide of what to watch for when the college basketball season starts, I talked to a number of scouts and an agent about a variety of significant topics in evaluating this group of freshmen.
Here are seven key questions for the 2023 NBA draft:
What will Julian Phillips' role be this season?
Last Friday, I had the opportunity to scout Tennessee freshman Julian Phillips, who at 6’8” and 200 lbs. has the positional size and length to carve out a role as a 3-and-D wing. Although he picked up two early fouls in the matchup with Gonzaga, he still managed to score 12 points on efficient 4-for-5 shooting, draining all three of his attempts from deep.
If last week's game is an indication of what to expect from Tennessee this season, then the Vols will be among the favorites to win the SEC (which is loaded with top-10 teams and NBA prospects) — and possibly make a run to the Final Four, according to Michigan State coach Tom Izzo.
Tennessee’s depth and talent could have an impact on Phillips' role and ultimately influence his draft position if he makes himself eligible for the draft.
From an NBA scout on Phillips:
I think he’s a two-year guy. Simply because Tennessee doesn’t need him to win and he’s not really an alpha. Tennessee is going to be really good with or without him, and I can see him taking a backseat to their seniors and not being assertive. Coming back for a second year will give him a bigger role and give him more opportunities to show what he’s capable of.
What will Brandon Miller’s draft range be?
Another SEC prospect who appears to be on the rise among scouts and agents I’ve spoken with is Alabama’s Brandon Miller, perhaps the most divisive projected one-and-done prospect in college basketball.
Scouts seem to either love the 6’8” forward or be turned off by his tendency to settle for difficult, contested jumpers when he has the tools to pressure the rim on a consistent basis.
Said an agent hoping to sign Miller:
He’s a top-five pick. That size and shot-making, plus his athleticism is special. I see some Paul George in him.
An alternative view from an NBA scout surprised when I mentioned an agent considered Miller a top-five pick:
Really? I understand the intrigue, but the thing for me that’s the most concerning is the lack of shooting progression, and that goes hand to hand with his age [Miller turns 20 later this month].
He does some good stuff in the midrange and he’s going to be a monster defensively, but most returning sophomores are younger than him. Given his age, the lack of shooting progression is concerning, because he’s not a great shooter at this point and the decision-making is a little slow. He’s not like a late bloomer or anything. He’s been on the map since he was young.
Another scout’s take:
He’s rising in my opinion, but it’s early. The more I see his film, the more I like him. He’s long, agile and can score all over the floor.
I missed the TCU game [an Oct. 18 scrimmage in which Miller scored 33 points], but I heard they didn’t have an answer for him.
He should be in the discussion to be one of the top 5-to-7 picks.
Is Nick Smith too reliant on his floater?
Smith, a 6’5” guard, has drawn considerable buzz as a candidate to be the first college basketball player selected in June’s draft.
He is also the headliner for an Arkansas freshman class that features three potential first-round picks and attracted scouts from 29 NBA teams last month at the team’s Pro Day.
Smith enters his freshman season with the reputation as a big-time shotmaker and scorer, but scouts are concerned about his ability to finish at the rim.
Here are what two of those scouts had to say:
He’s hesitant getting all the way to the rim. He’s got a great floater, but he relies on it way too heavily for me. But he’s a really good shooter.
I love guards that have a great float game at a young age, that’s super important to me. He’s not a great athlete, but he’s a solid athlete and he obviously needs to add strength to finish at the rim at a better level. He’s super-reliant on the float game. It’s something [attacking the rim] he’ll have to turn around, but I don’t think it’s something we’ll see him change this year.
How will Dariq Whitehead fare after recovering from his foot injury?
Whitehead, a highly touted Duke freshman, fractured his right foot in late August and had it surgically repaired. The 6’6” forward is expected to return to action this fall, although his status for Monday’s opening game of the post-Coach K era is not yet known.
The scouts I’ve talked to remain high on the five-star recruit, who is thought to be one of the safer picks in this draft class, both on and off the court.
Here are two recent takes from NBA scouts:
I’m super high on Dariq. He’s young, which is a big thing for me [on draft night, Whitehead will be about six weeks shy of turning 19].
He’s been at Montverde since he was in eighth grade, and he’s super-mature given his age. I think his game is scalable to the NBA, and that’s probably the biggest thing for him. He’s a great kid off the court, his brother is in the NFL and he has all the bloodlines. He’s going to shoot the ball, he’s going to defend and he’s a solid athlete. Hopefully we’ll get to see him at full strength.
Even before the foot injury, he didn’t create separation at a super-high level, but I think his ability to make quick decisions off the catch [will] translate to the NBA. I also like his cool, calm and quiet demeanor. He’s a great kid off the court, and everything everyone has to say about him is good stuff.
Will Dillon Mitchell shoot enough?
Mitchell, a 6’7” small forward and projected lottery pick, has impressed NBA scouts with his potential and especially with elite athleticism that ranks among the top in this class full of vertical high risers.
The Texas freshman is also considered one of the best defenders in this draft class — he can defend multiple positions and impact winning with his energy and effort.
On offense, Mitchell does not require a lot of touches to be effective and is an efficient scorer around the rim and excellent transition finisher. But he rarely scores from outside of the paint.
Three NBA scouts weighed in on Mitchell:
I believe he’s only taken 11 total jump shots in games over the last calendar year. 11!
I think it’s hard to really evaluate his shooting at this stage, because he’s a late bloomer and he’s really only played that one year against really high-level competition. If I were an outlier athlete like him [playing against weaker competition], I wouldn’t shoot either if I could get to the rim 10 out of 10 times. I think he has to do more [shooting] and it will be something that comes along, but I’m not super-concerned right now.
I’ve heard good stuff about the shooting progression. I don’t think he’s going to shoot great this year. I don’t think he’s going to shoot at a high volume this year, either, but I’m not concerned about the hesitancy.
I think the playmaking is interesting and that’s the thing that’s popped to me the most. I think he has real juice as a passer.
Cam Whitmore’s progression: Will he be Villanova’s first one-and-done since Tim Thomas?
Whitmore, a 6’7” small forward, is coming off a sensational summer where he was named the MVP of the 2022 FIBA U18 Americas Championship and solidified himself as one of the fastest-rising prospects in the 2023 draft.
In early October, Whitmore underwent surgery to repair an injured thumb which will likely sideline him for the first few games of the season.
Over the past few months, Whitmore has evolved from a fringe top-15 recruit to arguably the top prospect in all of college basketball. Every scout I talk to regards him as a potential top-five NBA draft pick.
Given his progress, Whitmore is now widely expected to be the first one-and-done from Villanova since Tim Thomas in 1997. When he’s healthy, scouts will be watching and expecting him to live up to that billing.
Two scouts weighed in on Whitmore:
I’m extremely high on Cam. He’s a dog, he’s young and the skills have come a long way in a short time. He’s a freak on both ends of the floor with an incredibly strong lower body. He’s one of those guys that looks way bigger in person.
He was a monster at the U18s. He can dribble, pass and shoot. He’s an underrated passer and I think that’s going to be what pops for him this season.
What about Keyonte George’s shot selection and decision-making?
George, a 6’4” shooting guard, made a name for himself throughout his prep career as a big-time scorer with a picture-perfect stroke who can score in bunches.
This season he joins a loaded Baylor backcourt that should be one of the best 3-point shooting trios in all of college basketball.
While there are no doubts about George’s ability to put the ball in the basket, scouts will be monitoring his passing and how he balances scoring and making plays for others.
Two NBA scouts expressed their concerns:
The decision-making is a massive question for me. He’s looking to score and put the ball in the hoop. He’s a gifted scorer, he can get to his spots and rise up [over defenders], but I’m looking to see how he processes things offensively. He’s looking to score 10 out of 10 times.
I know he can score and shoot the ball, but if he shows he can pass the ball then he’s got a good shot to be the first guard [drafted] after Scoot [Henderson]. It’s only been flashes here and there, but he can make some nice reads and passes. I don’t know if he’ll show it this year and he may just be asked to score the ball.
Cannot wait to dive deep into some more film man. The same high school clips from a year plus ago are not doing it for me anymore lol. I tend to side with the agent on Brandon Miller. I hate Paul George comps for 6'8 fluid wings that can shoot off the dribble because I think its used too much as a player comp. BUT BUT BUT I do think he reminds me of PG!! Felt the same way about my Jalen Brown - Ben Mathurin comp last year.
If Keyonte can show me some passing flashes this year at Baylor I think you're right he will for sure get some looks at #3.