(Note to readers: This is an excerpt of Big Board 6.0 provided to free subscribers. To see the rankings of prospects 5-30 you need to be a paid subscriber. Click button below to read the full version.)
With the NBA Draft Combine in the rearview mirror, we are only four weeks from the 2021 NBA Draft.
And we have a lot of new intel to share.
Many of the top prospects spent part of the last two weeks in Chicago for the combine and other draft-related activity. NBA teams had the opportunity to see prospects in action, and gather lots of info about them via interviews, athletic tests, official measurements and medical evaluations.
Medical evaluations and interviews tend to make the most impact on how prospects are evaluated. But some players helped (or hurt) themselves with their play in 5-on-5 games and how they came out in athletic testing and measurements.
Because of the intel emerging from Chicago and other places, we now have new perspectives to share with you on how this draft shapes up.
Looking at this month as a whole, the biggest development is that NBA teams now see a Big 6: Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Kuminga and now Scottie Barnes. For months, NBA teams have been talking about the top five prospects, but, as of the past few weeks, Barnes is seen as a full-fledged member of this group. In fact, some NBA teams have Barnes ranked ahead of Suggs, and most have Barnes ahead of Kuminga.
After those six, the scrum of prospects runs about nine deep, from picks 7 to 15. Different teams have those prospects ranked very differently. We’re here to provide something of a consensus on those nine, to the degree that one exists.
The same goes for the next nine: picks 16 to 24. You tend to hear the same names over and over in that range, but in significantly different orders, depending on which team you’re talking to.
From picks 25 to 45, it’s pretty wide open. This part of the draft is where a number of prospects made headway over the past few weeks, especially at the combine.
At this point on the draft calendar, players head to team workouts. Next week all 30 teams will attend a group workout in Minneapolis. From there, prospects will meet primarily with individual teams.
July 7 is the deadline for underclassmen to withdraw from the draft if they want to retain their college eligibility. (The NBA’s withdrawal deadline is July 19.)
Here are my latest prospect rankings, based on conversations with NBA scouts and execs, on the top prospects in the 2021 NBA Draft. We will be back next week with rankings for picks 31-80 after the July 7th deadline for underclassmen to return to college.
01 Cade Cunningham
Oklahoma State
Freshman
Point Forward
6’7” | 220 lbs | 7’0” wingspan
Age: 19.7
The consensus that Cunningham is the No. 1 pick has unraveled a bit the past month. Teams have been debating the merits of Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Jalen Green relative to each other. In that context, Cunningham’s warts (high turnover rate, average athleticism) get a brighter spotlight.
In terms of how the draft actually goes, the Detroit Pistons winning the No. 1 pick at the NBA Draft Lottery didn’t help his cause. Cunningham is neck-and-neck with Green on Detroit’s board.
Nevertheless, I expect Cunningham to go No. 1. He has the highest floor of anyone in the draft and plays the most coveted position in the league. And if the Pistons decide they want someone else, they should be able to find a trade partner that would want to move up to No. 1 to grab Cunningham.
Draft range: 1-2
02 Evan Mobley
USC
Freshman
Forward/Center
7’0” | 215 lbs | 7’4” wingspan
Age: 20.0
Mobley is still the consensus No. 2 guy on most boards. The question is, is he No. 2 on the Houston Rockets’ board? He might be, but Green is very much in the picture in Houston.
Why Mobley over Green here? The versatile nature of Mobley’s game on both ends trumps the more one-dimensional scoring game that Green provides.
If Mobley does slide past Houston, I don’t think he’ll slide past Cleveland at No. 3, and in the long term I think we might look at him as the best prospect in the draft.
Draft range: 1-3
03 Jalen Green
G League Ignite
Shooting Guard
6’6” | 178 | 6”7.5” wingspan
Age: 19.4
Green is getting looks from the Pistons and Rockets at 1 and 2. He’s the best pure scorer in the draft and the best athlete of the top six guys on the board. He also has some real star appeal that will be tempting to both Detroit and Houston.
That said, I believe the odds are more likely that he’ll be drafted in the 3-5 range. The Cleveland Cavaliers, Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic all appear to be more likely landing spots.
Draft range: 1-5
04 Scottie Barnes
Florida State
Freshman
Forward
6’8” | 225 lbs | 7’2.75” wingspan
Age: 19.8
Barnes cracking the top 5 of the Big Board seemed highly unlikely six weeks ago. What happened?
The more NBA teams dug into film study and did interviews in Chicago, the more they came away impressed by Barnes’ ability to play four, maybe five positions and his charismatic personality. Barnes is one of the more unique players I’ve scouted because he can be so many things on the floor. That quality has him leapfrogging Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Kuminga on my board.
The lottery didn’t hurt his momentum. Barnes’ combination of size, length, athleticism, playmaking and defensive versatility makes him a strong fit for the Cavs, Raptors and Magic. If he slides past those three teams, it’s unlikely he’ll slip past the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are among the teams with Barnes ranked ahead of Suggs and Kuminga on their boards.
Draft range: 3-6
(Note to readers: This is an excerpt of Big Board 6.0 provided to free subscribers. To see the rankings of prospects 6-30 you need to be a paid subscriber. Click button below to read the full version.
Paid subscribers will also get access to full scouting reports on all of the top players in the draft as well as the ability to comment on articles and special discussion boards, Zoom calls and more interaction with me in the coming weeks.)