Ace Bailey’s Pre-Draft Gamble: Strategic Bet or Red Flag?

Confidence, development, and the long play—what Bailey’s agency may be betting on.

Ace Bailey (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Late Wednesday night, ESPN’s Jonathan Givony broke the news that Rutgers freshman and projected top-three pick Ace Bailey had canceled his scheduled workout with the Philadelphia 76ers—leaving him as the only American-based prospect in this class yet to visit or work out for any NBA team. According to league sources, Bailey’s camp was reportedly seeking a draft-day promise from the Sixers before agreeing to meet. When that assurance wasn’t provided—specifically, a guarantee to be selected at No. 3—his team decided to pull out.

The move raises a central question: is this part of a calculated effort to control Bailey’s NBA landing spot, or is it simply another sign of a mismanaged and increasingly puzzling pre-draft process?

Bailey entered the season as, in my opinion, a legitimate candidate to go No. 1 overall in the 2025 NBA Draft. While it became evident fairly early that Cooper Flagg had separated himself into a tier of his own, Bailey still showcased enough intrigue, versatility, and shot-making talent to remain one of the most enticing prospects in the class. At Rutgers, he averaged 17.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game, while shooting 46% from the field and 34% from three. He also added 1.3 blocks and 1.0 steal per game. When Bailey gets rolling, he might be the most dynamic shot-maker in the entire draft. His 39-point, 8-rebound, 4-block performance against Indiana stands out, as does a hyper-efficient 30-point outing versus Penn State where he hit 13-of-15 from the floor and 4-of-5 from deep. He also lit up Northwestern for 37 points on 13-of-20 shooting, showing flashes of a ceiling that’s tough to match in this class.

Still, Bailey’s freshman year was marked by inconsistencies. He’s capable of erupting with big scoring nights, but those flashes are often followed by cold stretches that highlight his reliance on tough, contested looks. That polarizing mix kept scouts intrigued, but also cautious. His feel for the game has been a frequent discussion point among evaluators, and while his physical tools and youth (he won’t turn 19 until August) make him a high-upside bet, his overall polish and decision-making remain in question. For most of the season, Bailey held steady as a top-three name on big boards—but over the past week, that narrative has started to shift, with whispers that his draft stock may be slipping.

How NBA Teams Might Read This

The big question now is: how could all of this impact Ace Bailey’s draft stock? Around the league, the optics aren’t ideal. The lack of any team workouts—combined with the perception that Bailey’s camp was demanding a promise from the Sixers before even stepping in the building—has raised red flags in front office circles. Add in the existing concerns about his polish, decision-making, and some questionable answers during Combine interviews (especially around his shot selection), and it’s fair to ask whether he’s unintentionally made himself a tougher sell.

Bailey wasn’t a polarizing prospect because of his talent—that’s never been in question. What made him polarizing to some scouts was his decision making. While he’s consistently proven he can take and make tough shots at a high level, there were questions about how much he leaned on those attempts and whether he’d be willing—or able—to simplify his offensive approach at the next level. Those concerns now exist alongside growing uncertainty about how he and his camp have navigated the pre-draft process.

In my personal opinion, Bailey didn’t need this type of negative press entering the draft. By all accounts, he’s a great kid—well-liked by NBA scouts and even college coaches who recruited him heavily before he ultimately landed at Rutgers. And that matters. He’s a young player with real upside and a reputation that, until recently, was largely clean. But when you’re one week out from a life-changing moment, the focus should be on your talent—not your availability, media perception, or pre-draft tactics.

Whether this Sixers workout cancellation becomes a major story or just a minor blip, I don’t believe it was necessary. And unfortunately, it may make Bailey a media target in the short term. Of course, all of this goes away if he comes out in Summer League and lights it up, or if he proves early in his rookie year that he’s exactly who many believed he could be. But the pre-draft strategy hasn’t exactly helped him build positive momentum at a time when that narrative really matters.

That leads to the question that’s been floating through front offices for a while now: is Ace Bailey getting bad advice? Bailey didn’t sign with one of the major agencies. Instead, he’s being represented by Omar Cooper—the father of former Auburn standout Sharife Cooper—who, by all accounts, has been more than just an agent. He’s been a father figure and a strong presence in Ace’s life over the last few years.

Cooper has played a key role in Bailey’s development and decision-making. Some within league circles view this as an ambitious attempt to make a power move and steer Bailey into a specific situation—but others feel this approach, while unorthodox, comes from a place of deep belief and protection.

Either way, there’s no denying that the handling of Bailey’s pre-draft window has drawn attention, and not always for the right reasons.

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The Agency Angle – Betting on the Ceiling

One thing I always try to do is stay objective and see the draft process through multiple lenses. So, let’s step back and look at this from the perspective of Ace Bailey’s camp. From a strategic standpoint, their actions—however unconventional—could be part of a bigger picture focused on long-term development. It’s not hard to find recent examples of talented young players whose growth stalled because they landed in situations that weren’t built for rookies to develop at their own pace. Just look at last year’s draft. Reed Sheppard, widely considered the best shooter in the 2024 class, went No. 3 overall to the Houston Rockets. Sheppard had a stellar freshman year at Kentucky, averaging 12.5 points on 53% shooting from the field and an elite 52% from three. But despite that, he struggled to crack the rotation in Houston, averaging just 12.6 minutes over 52 games. Rockets head coach Ime Udoka clearly favored veterans in their playoff push, and Sheppard often looked tentative when he did see the floor—a product, in my opinion, of a confidence hit due to inconsistent minutes.

His Kentucky teammate, Rob Dillingham, saw a similar rookie arc. Dillingham was taken No. 8 overall by San Antonio and then traded to Minnesota, where he averaged just 10.5 minutes and 4.5 points over 49 games on a team that made a deep run to the Western Conference Finals. One of the things that has me a little bit concerned about Rob Dillingham is the fact that he's a small guard—one of the most electrifying players I’ve ever scouted at the high school level—whose game is fueled by elite self-confidence, improvisational creativity, and his ability to color outside the lines.

What concerns me is: what happens if Rob Dillingham starts looking over his shoulder? What if he starts playing to avoid mistakes rather than playing free, like the Rob Dillingham that made him special? He’s already on the smaller side, and that self-confidence and freewheeling offensive style overcompensate for his physical limitations. If he loses that edge, then what do you have? And I think that’s something we have to at least consider when we look at how player confidence and team context intersect.

In Ace Bailey’s case, you can see a similar blueprint. His game is also built on confidence—especially in his ability to take and make tough shots. So what happens if he lands in a system that doesn’t allow him to play with the same rhythm, the same freedom? If he’s on a short leash or constantly looking over his shoulder, could that chip away at the self-belief that makes his shot-making so special?

Confidence plays a huge role in success—not just in basketball, but in life. And maybe that’s what Bailey’s camp is thinking about. Maybe this isn’t about entitlement or avoiding competition, but about avoiding a situation that chips away at his strengths. Because we’ve all heard the saying: confidence is 90% of the game. And in the modern NBA, it’s often the confident, mistake-resilient rookies who rise, while the ones constantly second-guessing themselves fade fast.

Which brings us back to Philadelphia. After an injury-riddled season that saw Joel Embiid play just 19 games and Paul George suit up for 41, the Sixers find themselves picking third overall—an unexpected detour for a team built around two max-level veterans. With Philly expected to push all their chips in for contention next season, it's fair to wonder if Bailey’s camp sees a risky developmental scenario. If you're repping an 18-year-old who’s still refining his decision-making and offensive efficiency, the last thing you want is him buried behind vets or thrown into a system where mistakes equal bench time.

And this isn’t new. Just look at Golden State. James Wiseman, the No. 2 pick in 2020, never found his footing in a veteran-heavy system. Jonathan Kuminga, picked No. 7 in 2021, has shown clear flashes of upside—but his development has also been uneven, in part because of inconsistent playing time. Some scouts and agents believe Golden State’s approach has cost Kuminga developmental momentum, and possibly even long-term contract value. There have even been reports of frustration from Kuminga’s camp, with his name frequently surfacing in trade rumors.

So maybe this is what Bailey’s agency is trying to avoid. Maybe they’re pushing for clarity—a situation where Ace can develop without being stifled by a win-now coaching mindset. Because the goal for young prospects and their representation is almost always the same: get to that second contract. And from their view, being on the wrong team—even a high-profile one—can get in the way of that goal just as easily as slipping a few spots on draft night.

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If I Were in His Corner... Flip the Narrative, Don’t Hide From It

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Now, from a totally different perspective—this is what I would do. I’ve always been intrigued by the agency side of things. I admire agents who are strategic with their clients, because this business requires strategy. An agent’s job isn’t just about negotiating contracts—it’s about putting their player in the best position to succeed long-term, and sometimes even more importantly, setting them up to secure generational wealth. In some cases, it’s deeper than basketball.

Let’s say an agent knows his client isn’t ready. I’m not saying that’s the case with Ace Bailey, but hypothetically—if the agent knows the player might get exposed, then the job becomes clear: strike while the iron is hot. Lock in the draft slot, maximize the first contract, and then if the client flames out or hits turbulence, at least he’s financially secure and can still carve out a career overseas. I’ve seen that story play out. Some might call the player a bust, but I would say that’s just smart management. It’s chess, not checkers.

So with that context, I understand the strategy that might be at play with Bailey. But if I were representing him, I would’ve handled things a little differently. And this might sound funny—but I’d even call the Dallas Mavericks. I know they’re locked in on Cooper Flagg, but still, I’d try to get a workout. Maybe just plant a seed.

Same thing with San Antonio. I’d reach out and pitch: “Hey, I know the roster fit isn’t seamless with Dylan Harper, De’Aaron Fox, and Stephon Castle, but I’d love to give you something to think about. Let’s get a workout.”

I’d absolutely work out for Philly. Same with Charlotte. Any team picking in the top five or six—I’d give them a reason to wonder. I’d want to cast a wider net, create some movement, and give teams picking outside the top three a reason to consider trading up.

Now, there have been rumors—and I can’t confirm if this is true—but there’s talk that Bailey’s camp is charging media for interviews. If that’s true, I wouldn’t be with that. In fact, I’d be doing the opposite. I’d be working to sell Ace the person. I’d coach him up for interviews—not to sound robotic, but to be polished and personable. Ace is a fun-loving, hardworking kid, and I’d lean all the way into that. I’d remind teams why they fell in love with him as a prospect to begin with. I wouldn’t be pushing power moves. I’d be pushing clarity, transparency, and momentum. I wouldn’t risk taking a PR hit this close to the draft.

After all, he’s 18 years old. Sometimes we forget that. Basketball players are human. And in today’s brutal 24-hour news cycle, the media’s just waiting for the next misstep to pick apart. As his agent, I’d do everything in my power to protect him from that spotlight and keep the focus on his game, not the noise. I understand wanting to control the destination, but I wouldn’t do it at the expense of my young client.

However, it could still work out. Maybe this is a short-term PR hit that lands Bailey in a long-term developmental sweet spot. But no matter how it plays out, it’s risky. If I were in his corner, I’d be flipping the narrative—not hiding from it.

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Conclusion: The Margin for Error Is Shrinking

At the end of the day, I believe the margin for error is shrinking for Ace Bailey. He still has top-three talent in this draft, but the volatility around his stock is more real than ever. I’ve seen multiple mocks drop him outside of the top five, and I’ve even heard rumblings—just whispers—that a Cam Whitmore-type slide could be in play.

Now, let’s be clear: I don’t think Bailey’s situation is as dire as what happened with Whitmore, who dropped all the way to No. 20 in 2023 after being projected as a top-ten pick. I’ve heard conflicting stories on that—from injury red flags to questionable intel—but what’s important is the precedent.

Once one team passes, others start to wonder why, and it can snowball. I had an NBA scout tell me just last month that he didn’t think Ace was a lock at No. 3—and it had little to do with his talent. That’s the risk. The perception can spiral.

Only time will tell whether this ends up as a smart, calculated bet—or a cautionary tale of a draft process that went sideways.

What matters most isn’t what’s already happened, but what happens next. We’ll find out soon enough—next Wednesday, to be exact.

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