Prospect Watch: Will Any Seniors Crack the First Round of the 2022 NBA Draft?
Prospect Watch: Will Any Seniors Crack the First Round of the 2022 NBA Draft?
Plus our Rookie, Sophomore and Draft Prospect of the Week
During the NBA, college and international seasons, my Tuesday newsletter will focus on NBA rookies and sophomores as well as prospects for the 2022 NBA Draft, especially those who have helped or hurt their stock in the past week.
My reports will be based on my own observations as well as information I receive from NBA scouts, executives and agents.
Where are the Seniors?
I released Big Board 3.0 on Thursday. Predictably, my list of the top 40 prospects for the 2022 NBA Draft was filled with NCAA freshmen, sophomores and young G League and international players. There were zero NCAA seniors on the list.
That’s probably not how it will look on draft night.
The 2021 NBA Draft had two college seniors, Chris Duarte and Corey Kispert, crack not only the first round but the top 15. In 2020 three college seniors, Payton Pritchard, Udoka Azubuike, and Desmond Bane, went in the first. In 2019, Cameron Johnson went in the lottery and Matisse Thybulle and Dylan Windler in the first.
And despite the NBA’s aversion to seniors in the draft, many of them have thrived over the years.
So why no seniors on Big Board 3.0?
A couple of reasons:
One, we are still sorting out a plethora of freshmen and G League prospects who, because of their age, will be prioritized by NBA teams come draft time if they declare. If this is a typical year, a number of them won’t declare or will withdraw, which will open up spaces in the top 30. But it’s too early to tell which of the younger players won’t be in the draft.
Second, the analytics point to the fact that older prospects just aren’t as valuable as younger prospects when it comes to the draft. Yes, of course, there are major success stories like Bane among seniors. But NBA teams tend to err on the side of upside, and most seniors just don’t have it.
Nevertheless, here are four seniors who I think will have a good shot at cracking the first round come draft night.
Ochai Agbaji, W, Kansas
6’6” | 214 | Wingspan: 6’10”
Age on draft night: 22.2
Agbaji has far and away the best shot of being rated as a first-round pick and perhaps climbing into the mid-first. After three ho-hum seasons for the Jayhawks, and a failed attempt to get attention in the 2021 draft, he’s exploded this year, averaging 22 points, 4.8 rebounds. 1.6 assists, 1.0 steals and 0.2 blocks per 36 minutes while shooting 53.3% from the field and 47.3% from 3.
The appeal of Agbaji is obvious. He has an NBA body and elite length for his position, is a good athlete and is shooting the lights out for the Jayhawks this year on 6.5 attempted 3s per game. He also plays a coveted position in the league, excels in the pick-and-roll and is a plus on the defensive end.
So why wasn’t he on Big Board 3.0? His age, his past inconsistency shooting the ball, a middling free-throw shooting percentage (which lowers his projected NBA 3-point shooting percentage considerably) and a lack of assists, free throws, steals and blocks have NBA teams that incorporate analytics heavily into their scouting skeptical. The statistical indicators in which Agbaji hasn’t thrived are keys that show athleticism and future promise.
Nevertheless, he’s getting a first-round grade from a number of NBA teams, and if he keeps up the hot shooting and can lead Kansas deep into the NCAA tournament, he’ll be getting a lot more first-round mentions in the future.