NBA Mock Draft 2.0
My new Mock Draft has some big changes, new faces and covers all 30 picks in the first round
Heading into the NBA’s All-Star break, it’s time for my second Mock Draft — my first full first-round Mock Draft for 2022.
The three worst NBA teams will each have a 14% chance of landing the overall top pick. This season, it looks like four teams — Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder — will be duking it out for those three slots.
Bigs continue to dominate the very top of the lottery. I noted in Big Board 4.0 that a consensus has formed around Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr. as the likely No. 1 pick in the draft.
However, the race remains competitive, with Purdue’s Jaden Ivey, Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren and Duke’s Paolo Banchero still in the mix for the top pick.
Also at NBA Big Board, Rafael Barlowe just dropped his first Mock Draft of the year in two parts on Monday and Wednesday. His Mock is based on his own extensive scouting of both college prospects and NBA teams.
For my Mock Draft, I’m trying — based on a combination of intel, player quality and team needs — to find the best prospect for each particular team. I’ve also included every eligible prospect for the draft. It’s difficult to ascertain, right now, which prospects will or won’t declare for the draft. The general rule is that if they have a shot at the first round, they’re in.
To determine the order for the NBA’s 30 teams in this Mock Draft, I am using 538’s NBA forecast to project each team’s final W-L record. To break ties in projected W-L, I went with the actual record of each team.
Based on those projected records it looks like a whopping 10 first-round picks will be changing hands on draft night.
Current projected lottery odds are noted in the Mock Draft as well as any draft-pick trades that could affect who is drafting where.
Now that we’ve got that out of the way, here’s my second take on how the 2022 NBA Draft could play out this summer:
1. Detroit Pistons
Projected record: 19-63
Odds of winning the No. 1 pick: 14%
JABARI SMITH JR.
Auburn
Freshman
PF
6’10” | 210 | Wingspan: 7’1”
Age on draft night: 19.1
2022 Draft Projection: 1-3
The Pistons, according to sources, are pining for Smith. GM Troy Weaver loves the idea of pairing him with Cade Cunningham.
They see Smith as an athletic forward who can space the floor and defend multiple positions and think that the combo of Cunningham and Smith could ultimately bring an NBA championship to Detroit.
Smith is coming off, arguably, his best game of the year — a 31-point, four-rebound, three-assist performance against Vanderbilt in which he shot 7-for-10 from 3.
There are cases to be made here for Jaden Ivey, Paolo Banchero (whom Rafael Barlowe put at No. 1 in his latest Mock Draft) and Chet Holmgren. All four prospects would be major upgrades over the players at those positions on the Pistons’ roster.
But Detroit is looking to the future and Smith, in the minds of many GMs, has the most upside of anyone in this draft class. He’s also, at age 18, the youngest of the four by more than six months.
2. Orlando Magic
Projected record: 21-61
Odds of winning the No. 1 pick: 14%
JADEN IVEY
Purdue
Sophomore
SG
6’4” | 200 | Wingspan: 6’9”
Age on draft night: 20.4
2022 Draft Projection: 1-5
The Magic already have a ton of promising young talent. Franz Wagner is a Rookie of the Year candidate. After a slow start, Jalen Suggs is coming on strong, and second-year guard Cole Anthony has shown dramatic improvement. Markelle Fultz is still just 23 years old and Jonathan Isaac is 24, and the Magic have other intriguing young players, including Mo Bamba, Wendall Carter Jr. and R.J. Hampton.
But do they have a superstar to build around? I’m told that their preference is Jabari Smith if they get the No. 1 pick. Things get a little trickier if they fall to No. 2.
The luxury of having so many young players filling every position is that it allows the Magic to completely ignore fit and just grab the player they think has the biggest upside.
At No. 2, this would be a tough choice between Holmgren and Ivey. Holmgren may be the most unique player I’ve ever scouted and the Magic have never shied away from taking players with similarly unique skill sets (see Mo Bamba). Holmgren has as much upside as anyone in the draft and his recent play has been exceptional. If the Magic were to choose Holmgren, I’d strongly support it.
However, I’m going with Ivey here. His combination of explosive athleticism and size and his emergence as a shooter and playmaker create a very high ceiling. Magic president Jeff Weltman and GM John Hammond love long, athletic players with star potential, and Ivey oozes it. If he can play the point (and he’s certainly shown signs of that lately), he could be a superstar.
3. Houston Rockets
Projected record: 22-60
Odds of winning the No. 1 pick: 14%