Who's No. 1 in 2022?
NBA scouts say 7 prospects have a shot at the No. 1 pick in 2022. Here's a look at each of them plus one sleeper from France
The 2021 NBA Draft was very strong at the top, with three Tier 1 players and three Tier 2 players. And we had a consensus No. 1 pick — Cade Cunningham — who sat at the top of my Big Board all year.
The 2022 NBA Draft looks a little different.
Not only is there no consensus No. 1 pick, but the 2022 draft currently has zero players projected as Tier 1 prospects. On the other hand, so far NBA teams project a whopping seven Tier 2 prospects for 2022. In 2021, we had three Tier 2 prospects.
One caveat, though: It’s early, and any number of prospects have the potential to move into Tier 1 or Tier 2 by June 23, 2022, the night of the draft.
Tier 1 prospects are considered potential superstars, while Tier 2 prospects are potential All-Stars.
As always, potential is the key word here, especially this far away from the new season and next June’s draft. NBA scouts don’t have a firm grasp on this year’s draft yet. Especially with so many COVID-19 restrictions in place and high school tournaments canceled, virtually all the scouts I spoke to told me they feel significantly behind on evaluating this year’s incoming college freshman class as well as some of the younger international prospects.
Among my NBA sources, there was a strong reluctance to rank the 2022 prospects without getting out to see them once college practices begin.
“Any ranking would be a farce right now,” one longtime scout said. “We know these guys, but we don’t know them. So much can happen in 18 months. They’re catching up. So are we. Once you get past Chet [Holmgren] and [Jaden] Hardy and [Paolo] Banchero, it’s pretty wide open.”
I’ve heard that sentiment from a number of other scouts that I trust. Their reluctance to form early conclusions is only heightened after some of the freshmen that scouts ranked so highly a year ago faltered — including Brandon Boston Jr., Greg Brown and Ziaire Williams.
Of course, 2021 still looks like an unusually gifted draft class. But 2022 has plenty of talent too.
Here are the seven players that NBA scouts are talking about as potential No. 1 picks in my conversations with them: five college players, one prospect from the Congo playing in Spain and one G League prospect. Plus I’m adding one international sleeper to watch.
We’ll have our first full ranking when Big Board 1.0 debuts in the Fall.
The top seven candidates to go No. 1 in 2022
In alphabetical order
Paolo Banchero
Duke
Freshman
PF/C
6’9” | 235
Age on draft night: 19.6
Banchero is already a grown man. His legs look like tree trunks.
He’s got Zion-like strength, but that’s not all: He’s also got significant skill and feel for a big guy. He has a nice face-up game, can put the ball on the deck and is a terrific passer. On defense he uses that same feel to make the right calls — he’s the rare big guy who can stay out of foul trouble by outthinking his opponent.
So what could keep Banchero from going No. 1? He lacks elite athleticism, for one. And I’ve had more than one scout make a Jabari Parker comparison.
“I felt the same way about Banchero that I did about Jabari coming out of high school,” one scout said. “I absolutely loved him and thought he had the chance to be the best player in the 2014 draft class. But so much of Jabari when he was young had to do with how physically dominant he was. When he started matching up with more physically dominant players, his lack of burst started to make a difference, especially defensively.
“Same thing happened with Stanley Johnson. I worry about Jalen Johnson, too. So I don’t know what to think with [Banchero]. He’s got the chance to be an awesome offensive player. But will he be able to move his feet well enough to defend in the NBA?”
Jalen Duren
Memphis
Freshman
C
6’11” | 245
Age on draft night: 18.6
(Note to readers: This is an excerpt of my Who’s No. 1 in 2022 provided to free subscribers. To get scouting reports on all 7 No. 1 prospects plus one sleeper … you need to be a paid subscriber. Click button below to read the full version.)
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