Ranking the Top 10 NBA Rookie of the Year Contenders
With the 2021-22 NBA regular season almost in the books, it’s time for me to make my final list of how I’d vote for Rookie of the Year.
With the 2021-22 NBA regular season almost in the books, it’s time for me to make my final list of how I’d vote for Rookie of the Year.
Early in the season, this looked like essentially a two-man race between Cleveland’s Evan Mobley and Toronto’s Scottie Barnes, with Mobley the heavy favorite. And while Mobley might ultimately win the vote, Barnes and Detroit’s Cade Cunningham have, on my board, made this a VERY tight three-man race.
Of course, the Rookie of the Year award winner often does not turn out to be the best player from his draft class: For instance, none of this year’s top three MVP candidates won ROY.
But this season, I think the primary ROY candidates are all potential superstars, and the relative merits of each one will be hotly debated for the next decade.
1. Scottie Barnes, W, Raptors
Before the draft, David Thorpe and I both LOVED Barnes, and yet I think it’s safe to say that neither of us saw Barnes as a serious candidate for Rookie of the Year. Barnes was supposed to be a couple of years away from showing us what his ceiling would be in the NBA. However, not only has his strong play already demonstrated that he could become a top-10 player in the league, but he’s played a huge role in the Raptors’ jump from lottery team to playoff contender in his first season in the league.
According to a pair of advanced metrics systems, FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR and Kostya Medvedovsky’s DARKO, Barnes is having the best season of the top three ROY contenders. BBall Index’s LEBRON has Barnes second behind Mobley.
Barnes’ numbers since the All-Star break are very strong: 18.1 points, 8.1 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game with 53.9% shooting.
My reason for choosing Barnes is simple: He’s been the most complete rookie this season. Cunningham has been a better scorer, and Mobley already looks like an All-NBA defender, but it’s Barnes who has shown the ability to be elite on both ends of the floor. In my conversations, NBA scouts project outcomes that include such superstars as Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo. In short, scouts think he could win an MVP award someday.
The biggest question about Barnes coming into the draft was his jump shot, and he still needs improvement — he’s shooting a shade under 30% from 3.