That decision is hanging over the top tier of men’s college basketball now that the early entry window for the 2026 NBA Draft closed on April 24. But declaring isn’t the final step it once was. Prospects can still go through workouts, collect feedback from teams, and ultimately pull their name out before the withdrawal deadline without sacrificing college eligibility.

That in between space has become the real power play.

Some players are juggling both worlds by entering the transfer portal while exploring their draft stock. Others are opting out of the process altogether. And with NIL deals exploding in value, especially for players projected outside the lottery, the calculus has shifted dramatically.

This isn’t just a basketball decision anymore.

It’s financial strategy.

There are even unverified reports suggesting that Flory Bidunga secured a $6 million NIL deal after moving from Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball to Louisville Cardinals men’s basketball. Whether that number is exact or exaggerated, it underscores a larger truth: for many prospects, returning to school can now outpay turning pro.

And that shift is already leaving its mark on the 2026 draft class.

The Pre-Draft Landscape

We’re just weeks away from the NBA Draft Lottery on May 10, followed immediately by the Combine in Chicago. For many prospects, preparation is already underway — workouts, interviews, and skill development after weeks of inactivity following postseason exits.

Meanwhile, the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament recently wrapped up, giving upperclassmen one last chance to perform in front of scouts and potentially earn invites to the G League Elite Camp.

But not everyone is moving forward.

Some are stepping back.

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This next wave of prospects brings a different layer to the class, featuring guards and wings with unique skill sets, varying play styles, and intriguing long term upside. In this installment, the focus shifts to Mikel Brown Jr., Darius Acuff, and Keaton Wagler, three players who may not headline the class right now but each have a pathway to significantly raising their stock.

From polished floor general play to dynamic shot creation and emerging versatility, this group highlights just how deep and layered this class is shaping up to be.

As we dive into the film, the question becomes less about whether these players belong and more about how high they can realistically climb as the draft approaches.

Mikel Brown Jr Scouting Report A True Floor General

This scouting breakdown dives into Mikel Brown Jr and the subtle details that separate him from most guards in this class. The film shows a player who consistently controls tempo, keeps defenders off balance with change of pace, and makes advanced reads out of pick and roll situations without forcing the issue.

He gets to his spots comfortably in the mid range, knocks down shots off the catch, and rarely looks sped up, which speaks to his poise and feel. There are also flashes of him manipulating defenders with his eyes and delivering passes a step ahead of the play, something you typically see from more experienced guards.

At the same time, the video doesn’t ignore the bigger question around his projection, especially when it comes to physical tools and how much pressure he can consistently put on the rim.

He plays the game with a level of control that translates, but in a league driven by athletic advantages, is that enough to separate him at the very top, or does he need another gear to truly elevate his ceiling?

The Truth About Darius Acuff Jr’s Scoring Profile

This breakdown takes a closer look at Darius Acuff Jr and one of the most polarizing skill sets in the class, his ability to create and convert difficult shots. The film is filled with pull up jumpers, step backs, and contested makes that highlight his confidence and creativity as a scorer, especially when the offense breaks down late in possessions.

He shows a tight handle, the ability to change directions, and flashes of playmaking when defenses collapse, but much of his game is built around high degree of difficulty attempts rather than easy looks. There are sequences where he strings together tough makes that very few players at this level can replicate, which is what makes his upside so intriguing.

The video raises an important question about sustainability and efficiency, particularly against better defenders and more disciplined defensive schemes.

There is clear scoring talent that pops immediately, but will refining his shot selection and decision making determine whether he becomes a true offensive engine or just a tough shot maker at the next level?

Inside Keaton Wagler’s Game Growth Traits and Long Term Outlook

This scouting breakdown focuses on Keaton Wagler and the flashes that have evaluators starting to take a longer look at his trajectory.

The film shows a prospect with intriguing size and developing perimeter skills, someone who is comfortable stepping into jumpers and showing confidence as a floor spacer.

There are also moments where his versatility pops, whether it is attacking closeouts or making simple reads within the flow of the offense. At the same time, the video highlights that he is still putting the full package together, particularly when it comes to consistency, physicality, and asserting himself for longer stretches.

The tools are there and the progression is noticeable, but how quickly can those flashes turn into reliable production, and is there enough upside here to push him into the upper tier of this class?

As this series continues to build, the next wave of breakdowns will shift the focus back to some of the most intriguing and dynamic talents in the class. Up next, we’ll be diving into Caleb Wilson, Brayden Burries, and Kingston Flemings, three prospects who each bring a different dimension to this already loaded group.

Whether it’s versatility, scoring instincts, or two way upside, there is plenty to unpack with this trio as the conversation around the top of the draft continues to evolve.

Stay tuned for the next set of film breakdowns as we take a closer look at how these players stack up and what could ultimately define their place in the 2026 class.

With the draft lottery set for May 10, this class is widely viewed as one of the deepest in recent memory, headlined by prospects like AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Cameron Boozer, who are widely expected to be the first three names off the board.

The intrigue does not stop at the top, though, as recent tiebreaker results have already started shaping the landscape. The Utah Jazz secured the fourth best lottery odds over the Sacramento Kings, while the New Orleans Pelicans edged the Dallas Mavericks for positioning inside the lottery.

With teams like the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks also holding impactful draft equity, the order is far from settled and the margins between landing a potential superstar or missing out entirely are razor thin.

In this series, I will be releasing scouting breakdowns in batches of three, offering my perspective and film based evaluations on the top prospects in the 2026 class, giving you a closer look at not just who these players are, but where their games are trending and how that shapes their long term potential.

Breaking Down AJ Dybantsa’s Elite Scoring and Star Potential

This scouting breakdown dives into BYU freshman AJ Dybantsa, arguably the most electrifying prospects in this draft class, and why he is generating serious buzz as the top pick in June’s draft. The video highlights his elite scoring instincts, athleticism, and advanced shot creation for his size, showing how he can take over games from all three levels.

At the same time, it touches on the nuances of his development, including areas like decision making and consistency that could shape just how high his ceiling really is.

There is no denying the star level tools, but the full picture is what makes him such a fascinating watch.

If you want a closer look at what could make Dybantsa a future face of the game, this breakdown is one you will not want to miss.

Two Versions of Darryn Peterson Injury Impact and True Ceiling

This breakdown takes a deeper look at Darryn Peterson by comparing his dominant high school film to his more controlled college performances, unpacking how an injury reshaped the way he approached the game.

The video highlights the shift from an aggressive, downhill scorer to more of a pull up shooter, raising real questions about how much of that change was circumstance versus long term identity.

Even with that adjustment, the flashes of elite shot making, strength, and control still point to a prospect with top of the class potential.

If the more explosive version of Peterson returns at full health, are we looking at the best player in this entire class.

Cameron Boozer Dominates but How High Is His Ceiling Really

This video focuses on Cameron Boozer and the traits that have made him one of the most consistently dominant and productive prospects we’ve seen in a long tim.

I highlight his strength, touch, feel, and ability to control the game without needing elite burst and bounce, showing why he mastered the prep and college level. At the same time, it digs into the bigger question surrounding his projection, especially in a league that often prioritizes explosiveness and shot creation.

There is a lot to like and a very high floor, but how much higher can he realistically climb?

Is Boozer simply a safe bet to be good or does he have the tools to become something much bigger at the next level?

Next Round of Film Breakdowns

As this series continues to unfold, there is still plenty more high level talent to break down and evaluate. Next up, I will be diving into the games of Darius Acuff, Mikel Brown Jr., and Keaton Wagler, three prospects with very different skill sets but equally intriguing long term outlooks.

Each brings a unique dimension to this 2026 class, and their development could play a major role in shaping how deep and impactful this group ultimately becomes.

Stay tuned for the next batch of film breakdowns as we continue to build a clearer picture of the future of this draft class.

Every year, the basketball world gets an early glimpse of its future at the Nike Hoop Summit in Portland.

Some of the biggest names in basketball history made their introductions to the basketball world on these Saturday nights in April. Names like Dirk Nowitzki, Nikola Jokic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have represented the World Team. On the American side, you might have heard of a few players like Derrick Rose, Kevin Durant, and Jayson Tatum.

Altogether, the event has featured six MVPs, 41 NBA All-Stars, and over 100 lottery picks.

So if you’re there, you’re firmly on the NBA radar.

A Loaded Present, But an Uncertain Future

In 2025, we saw future lottery picks like AJ Dybantsa, Darius Acuff Jr., Cameron Boozer, and Mikel Brown Jr. take on a talented World Team featuring players such as Tounde Yessoufou, Dame Sarr, and Dash Daniels.

The 2026 draft class is widely viewed as loaded. In fact, eight teams finished with at least 55 losses this season, an NBA record, largely in pursuit of that talent.

But the 2027 class feels different.

The 2025 draft gave us stars like Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, forming one of the strongest classes in years. The 2026 group looks like it could match that level of talent.

The 2027 class, though, lacks that same early clarity.

Many executives don’t view it as particularly strong, and I agree. Someone will emerge as an All-Star, but it’s far less obvious who that will be compared to recent years.

That uncertainty showed up in Portland.

This year’s Hoop Summit game lacked polish and high-level execution. The game featured 54 turnovers, and the point guard play for Team USA was underwhelming.

Even the No. 1 player in the class, Tyran Stokes, struggled to find consistency.

Still, there were standout performances worth breaking down.

Standout Performers

Miles Sadler | West Virginia | Point Guard

Sadler was the star of the show.

Somehow snubbed from the McDonald’s All-American Game, he made a strong case as the best point guard in the country. Others may be bigger, but he’s the most dynamic.

He’s a blur with the ball. Picking him up full court is a mistake, and pressuring him beyond the three-point line is just as risky. He’s too fast, too shifty, and an excellent passer.

Sadler made life easy for athletic bigs like Paul Osaruyi and Miika Muurinen, to the point where they should seriously consider following him to Morgantown.

If this were 25 years ago, Sadler would be viewed as a lottery pick. But the position has changed. Smaller guards are increasingly seen as liabilities.

He finished with 29 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assists, leading all scorers. The downside was 11 turnovers, many coming from being forced into tight spaces.

He’ll need to be more selective when attacking the defense.

Tyran Stokes | Undecided | SF/PF

Stokes did not have his best showing.

The No. 1 ranked player in the class scored 15 points before fouling out. The numbers look solid, but most of his scoring came in transition. He also had four turnovers and no assists.

Despite that, Stokes remains the favorite to go No. 1 in 2027.

He’s a strong passer with an NBA-ready body and projects as a ball-handling wing who can play either forward spot. He also wouldn’t be the first elite prospect to struggle in this setting.

Cooper Flagg had a slow start in 2024 before finishing strong, and things turned out just fine.

Stokes remains undecided on his college destination, but he should have a productive freshman season wherever he lands.

Jordan Smith Jr. | Arkansas | Shooting Guard

Fresh off winning MaxPreps National Player of the Year, Naismith Player of the Year, and Virginia Gatorade Player of the Year, Smith Jr. entered with serious momentum.

He’s an explosive two-way shooting guard who can score off the catch and off the dribble while defending at a high level on the ball.

He finished with 13 points on 6-of-11 shooting.

The biggest question is his playmaking. He plays more like a traditional scoring guard, relying heavily on pull-up jumpers.

If he reaches a ceiling similar to a Donovan Mitchell-level scorer, it works. If not, his floor remains high as a valuable role player.

Defensively, he could have an impact similar to Cason Wallace.

The key question is whether you can draft an undersized shooting guard high and build around him.

Caleb Holt | Arizona | Combo Guard

Holt is labeled as a combo guard, but like Smith Jr., he projects more as a scoring guard than a primary ball handler.

That’s not a knock.

He has improved significantly as a shooter, going from 35 percent on the Adidas circuit to 42 percent this past season with Prolific Prep.

Pair that with his defensive intensity, and he looks like a potential top-five pick.

Holt recorded seven steals in the game, continuing a season-long trend of disruptive defense.

Following in the footsteps of Brayden Burries, Holt could emerge as Arizona’s next lottery-level talent. He finished with 24 points and 8 rebounds to go along with his defensive dominance.

Lucas Morillo | Illinois | Playmaking Wing

Sadler may have been the star, but Lucas Morillo was one of the most impressive long-term prospects.

The 6’7” wing handled pressure well against defenders like Caleb Holt and Brandon McCoy. He played at his own pace and consistently got to the rim.

His game mirrors the archetype of jumbo playmakers, similar to Illinois guard Keaton Wagler.

Morillo isn’t the same level of shooter yet, but he could follow a similar developmental path, much like Kasparas Jakicionis before him.

His path to immediate stardom may be complicated, especially with Illinois potentially returning key players and adding more talent.

For Morillo, continued improvement as a shooter will determine how quickly he reaches the next level.

Quick Hitters

Abdou Toure | Arkansas
Toure put together one of the most impressive stat lines of the event with 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 blocks. He joins an athletic frontcourt in Fayetteville and could develop into a one-and-done prospect in a wide-open draft.

Miika Muurinen | Undecided
Muurinen built on his strong EuroBasket performances. While Lauri Markkanen owns the nickname “The Finnisher,” Muurinen fits the mold as a play finisher. At 7 feet tall, he thrives in the dunker spot and on the glass. His role is clear, and there is a place for that skill set at the next level.

Adam Atamna | France
Atamna entered with buzz as one of the top international prospects. Known as a shooter, he struggled with the pace and looked sped up. International travel can take a toll, so it’s fair to give him some leeway.

Jason Crowe | Missouri
Crowe is a natural scorer and the all-time leading scorer in California high school history. He’s extremely comfortable shooting off the dribble and from NBA range. The question is what else he brings to the table beyond scoring, especially at the next level.

Final Thoughts: More Questions Than Answers

This year’s Nike Hoop Summit didn’t provide the clarity we’re used to.

Instead, it raised questions.

About the strength of the 2027 class.
About positional value.
About which players can truly translate to the next level.

There’s talent, no doubt. But for the first time in a while, the future feels uncertain.

And that might be what makes this class the most interesting one yet.

The NBA is evolving, and it couldn’t be more evident than in how the point guard position has changed over the years.

It’s a copycat league, always has been, always will be. When teams see a formula that works, they chase it. And lately, that formula has gotten bigger.

Last year’s Finals featured two 6’6” point guards: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton. Two completely different styles, but one shared trait, size well above the traditional standard for the position.

That’s not a coincidence. That’s a trend.

The Rise of the Jumbo Playmaker

The league has taken notice, and teams are adjusting accordingly.

Cade Cunningham, a former No. 1 pick and 6’6” playmaker, has led the Detroit Pistons to a No. 1 seed just two seasons after losing a record 26 straight games.

In Cleveland, the Cavaliers moved on from the Darius Garland / Donovan Mitchell backcourt, opting instead to bring in a bigger lead guard in James Harden. They doubled down on size by signing Lonzo Ball.

Meanwhile, LaMelo Ball is finally healthy, and the Hornets are trending up.

Even in San Antonio, where De’Aaron Fox is technically the point guard, it’s 6’6” Stephon Castle leading the team in assists. Oh, and they just drafted 6’5” Dylan Harper second overall.

This isn’t subtle anymore. The league is prioritizing size at the position.

How We Got Here: The Steph Curry Effect

There was a time when it felt impossible to play two bigs on the court, thanks largely to the Golden State Warriors.

Their “death lineup,” anchored by Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala, forced teams to downsize or get run off the floor.

But let’s be honest, small ball didn’t work just because of strategy. It worked because of Steph.

Curry is a one-of-one. An all-time great whose gravity broke defenses and reshaped the sport. The problem is that there hasn’t been a true successor.

The Problem with Small Guards Today

There have been flashes.

Trae Young has had individual success, but at 6’2”, 165 pounds, he’s been neutralized in the playoffs outside of one run.

Ja Morant is electrifying, but durability and inconsistent perimeter shooting have limited Memphis’ ceiling.

Jalen Brunson might be the best small guard in the league today. But if he can’t lead the Knicks to the Finals, he risks joining the growing list of elite players who just weren’t big enough to carry a team all the way.

That’s the harsh reality. There appears to be a glass ceiling for teams built around smaller lead guards, unless your name is Stephen Curry.

Why Size Wins in the Modern Game

The game itself has changed.

Gone are the days when you simply guarded your position. Today, offenses hunt mismatches relentlessly.

If you’re a smaller guard who can’t defend, you’re getting targeted.

Teams now use low-usage players as screeners, forcing switches. Suddenly, you’re defending someone like Jayson Tatumin space. That’s a losing battle.

Defensively, you’re compromised. Offensively, bigger defenders are switched onto you.

It’s a two-way problem, and it’s why size matters more than ever.

The Risk of Forcing the Trend

But here’s the catch. Just because bigger guards are trending doesn’t mean every big guard works.

Take Amen Thompson.

At 6’7”, he fits the mold physically, but his inability to shoot allows defenses to ignore him, clog spacing, and disrupt the offense. Put a shot blocker on him, and everything shrinks.

The same concern could apply to players like Stephon Castle in a playoff setting.

Size alone isn’t enough. Skill still matters.

A Brief History of the Position

Traditionally, the point guard was the table-setter, the decision-maker.

Players like Magic Johnson and Isiah Thomas could beat you with both scoring and playmaking.

Penny Hardaway looked like the next evolution before injuries derailed his career.

In the 2000s, smaller scoring guards like Tony Parker and Chauncey Billups led championship teams.

Then came Steve Nash, a two-time MVP who revolutionized offense, but ultimately couldn’t get Phoenix over the hump.

Fast forward to today, and it’s harder than ever to build a contender around a small guard.

The 2026 Draft Dilemma

So what happens when the next wave doesn’t fit the mold?

The 2026 Draft presents a fascinating challenge.

At the top, names like Cameron Boozer, AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Caleb Wilson are expected to headline the class.

But what about the point guards?

If you’re Sacramento and picking fourth, do you take a bigger guard like Keaton Wagler at 6’6”? And if you do, is he good enough at the rim?

If you’re Atlanta, do you stick with your current structure, or bet on someone like Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr.? He has size and playmaking, but can he defend at a high enough level?

And what about teams like Dallas?

If their options are Kingston Flemings and Darius Acuff, you’re weighing trade-offs:

• Flemings, solid defender, but not elite, with offensive limitations

• Acuff, talented scorer, but questionable defensive effort

These aren’t easy decisions.

Are Small Guards the New Running Backs?

At one point, big men were considered the “running backs” of the NBA, valuable, but replaceable.

Now, it might be small point guards heading in that direction.

But here’s the twist. A running back just won Super Bowl MVP.

There are always outliers.

The question is, are there any in this draft?

We’re about to find out.

Illinois brings an international flavor, led by the once unheralded Keaton Wagler. Michigan built its roster through the transfer portal and has consistently looked like a team destined for this moment. The same can be said for Arizona, powered by McDonald’s All-Americans Koa Peat and Brayden Burries. Then there’s the most unlikely contender of the group, the Connecticut Huskies, who erased a 19-point deficit against Duke on a Braylon Mullins buzzer-beating heave.

For NBA draft prospects, the Final Four represents a massive opportunity. Scouts already know who you are, but this is the stage to prove you are built for the biggest moments. A great performance can reinforce a lottery case. A poor outing will not tank a player’s stock, but the spotlight is real.

Here are four players I will be watching closely.

Keaton Wagler

Illinois
Freshman
Wing
6’6” | 185
Age on draft night: 19.4

If Wagler leads Illinois to a national championship after receiving just two Power 4 offers, you might as well start writing the movie script now.

Wagler has played like a top 10 pick for much of the season and continues to build an impressive résumé. After a rough stretch late in conference play, he has found his rhythm in March. Even during cold shooting nights, he finds ways to impact the game, like grabbing 12 rebounds in a gritty win over Houston.

When he is clicking, the results speak for themselves. He dropped 29 points in the Elite Eight against Iowa.

What stands out most is his pace. Wagler is not an explosive athlete. He has zero dunks this season. Still, he plays under control at all times. His handle is solid and he is rarely sped up. Against a Houston defense that has frustrated elite guards like AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson, Wagler stayed composed and led Illinois to victory despite poor shooting.

He may not look physically dominant, but he plays strong and that matters more. At just 19, with his size, shooting, and playmaking, Wagler offers both a high floor and real upside as an on or off ball guard.

UConn will throw physical defenders at him, but Wagler has made a habit of finding solutions.

Tarris Reed Jr.

Connecticut
Senior
Big
6’11” | 265
Age on draft night: 22.9

Braylon Mullins delivered the moment of the tournament with his buzzer-beater against Duke, but Tarris Reed Jr has been the steady force all season long.

Reed kept UConn afloat early in that game while the rest of the team struggled. He dominated matchups against projected first rounder Patrick Ngongba II and defensive standout Maliq Brown.

His strengths are clear. He has polished footwork, soft touch with both hands, and surprising athleticism for his size. Defensively, he protects the rim well, averaging over two blocks per game.

In a different era, Reed is likely a first round pick. But today’s NBA has moved away from traditional post play, which could push him into a second unit role at the next level.

Still, his mobility and rebounding give him a real chance to stick as a rotation big. The biggest concern is his free throw shooting, which raises questions about floor spacing.

Right now, Reed projects as an early second round pick, but with strong tournament performances and the possibility of players returning to school for NIL opportunities, he could climb into the late first round.

Against Illinois, his ability to defend in space and contain Wagler will be critical.

Koa Peat

Arizona
Freshman
Forward
6’8” | 235
Age on draft night: 19.4

Koa Peat’s pedigree is undeniable. He has won at every level and now sits two wins away from a national title.

Scouts agree he is an NBA talent. The question is what kind of player he will become.

Peat relies heavily on contested mid range pull ups, which does not align with modern NBA shot selection. Still, there is a pathway for him. His game draws some parallels to Aaron Gordon during his time at Arizona, with a strong frame, high level athleticism, and impactful intangibles.

Like Gordon as a freshman, Peat has struggled from three and the free throw line. However, he has elevated his play during the tournament, averaging 17.5 points and 6.8 rebounds.

To reach his full potential, Peat will need to expand his range and rediscover the ball handling and playmaking flashes he showed on the AAU circuit with Compton Magic.

He will face a major test against Michigan’s size, particularly Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. For now, Peat continues to provide energy, finishing ability, and physicality for an Arizona team making its first Final Four appearance since the 1997 to 1998 season.

Yaxel Lendeborg

Michigan
Senior
Forward
6’9” | 235
Age on draft night: 23.7

Lendeborg has been dominant throughout the tournament, scoring over 20 points in each of Michigan’s last three games.

He is one of the most complete players in the country. He can play multiple frontcourt positions while defending on the perimeter. If not for the fact he will be 24 on NBA opening night, he would likely be in the conversation as a top five pick.

A late bloomer in basketball, Lendeborg has improved every year and now projects as a high level role player at the next level. He is the type of versatile piece every team wants alongside its stars.

There are not many holes in his game. Age is the primary concern.

The key question now is whether he can carry Michigan in a tight game. In recent losses to Purdue and Duke, he did not get much help. Against Arizona, he will face physical matchups regardless of position, whether it is perimeter stopper Ivan Kharchenkov or Koa Peat.

Lendeborg thrives off the ball and in transition, but Michigan may need more. Can he take over when it matters most?

Final Thoughts

This Final Four features contrasting styles, roster builds, and star profiles. That is what makes it compelling.

Michigan versus Arizona feels like a heavyweight matchup worthy of a title game. Illinois versus UConn pits a rising star guard against a physical and resilient frontcourt.

For NBA scouts, this weekend is not about discovering talent. It is about confirming it under the brightest lights.

Monday will crown a champion. Before that, the stage is set for four players to leave a lasting impression.

The end of March means a few things in the basketball world. The Final Four is around the corner, the transfer portal is buzzing with activity, and the McDonald’s All-American Game has tipped off.

Last year’s game featured what could end up being around thirteen first-round picks. The 2025 class included names like Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, Darius Acuff, and AJ Dybantsa. That group would have been even more loaded had Cooper Flagg and Jeremiah Fears not graduated early.

A Different Kind of Draft Landscape

With the 2026 NBA Draft class looming, teams didn’t wait around to start positioning themselves. Tanking efforts ramped up earlier than normal, with several franchises pivoting before the All-Star break and trade deadline by holding out players due to various injuries and lingering ailments. As a result, G League call-ups have seen expanded roles and heavy minutes late in the season. The league has taken notice, with commissioner Adam Silver acknowledging the issue and stating, “we’re going to fix it — full stop,” adding that next season’s incentives “will be completely different than they are now.”

That urgency speaks to just how highly evaluators view the top end of the 2026 class, even if the next group is still coming into focus.

That’s not to say the class lacks talent. It just does not appear as top-heavy right now. Every draft cycle produces late bloomers, so the question becomes who will emerge as that diamond in the rough.

Another wrinkle in projecting the 2027 class is the growing impact of NIL. Players projected as late first-round picks now have a real financial incentive to return to school, where they can earn comparable or even greater money. It already appears to be paying off for Alabama’s Labaron Philon, who now projects as a top 15 pick. Expect more players to follow that path.

Setting the Scene: Phoenix Showcase

Back to the McDonald’s All-American Game in Phoenix. These showcase games are typically loose and a bit sloppy, so it is important not to overreact. Still, they offer a valuable glimpse at elite, up-and-coming talent.

Having built big boards for the 2027, 2028, and 2029 classes, I was already familiar with most of the roster, along with a few notable omissions such as Duke commit Bryson Howard and UNC’s Dylan Mingo.

With that in mind, here are the standout performers from the night.

Tyran Stokes

6’7” 230 lbs | Small Forward | Undecided

Stokes is my early pick to go number one in the 2027 NBA Draft, regardless of who returns to school.

He is already physically mature and impacts the game across the board. Stokes rebounds and passes at a high level, operating as a true point forward with a relentless motor. While his catch-and-shoot ability still needs development, his overall versatility makes him incredibly valuable.

In Phoenix, he finished with 12 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 stocks, showcasing his all-around impact. His two-way presence and positional versatility draw some loose comparisons to Scottie Barnes, even if the measurements do not fully match.

Jordan Smith Jr.

6’2” 200 lbs | Combo Guard | Arkansas

Smith Jr. has big shoes to fill at Arkansas following the departure of SEC Player and Freshman of the Year Darius Acuff. While they are not stylistically similar, Smith Jr. looks like the next in a long line of successful guards under John Calipari.

At 6’2”, he plays bigger than his size and brings real two-way value. He can defend both guard spots, disrupt passing lanes, and contribute as a scorer and playmaker.

If he continues developing as a primary ball handler, he could push into the number one conversation. Even if he settles as an undersized scoring guard, his defensive traits, similar to Cason Wallace, give him a high floor.

He finished with 15 points and 4 assists, offering a glimpse of what he could look like running the Razorbacks’ offense.

Caleb Holt

6’5” 200 lbs | Combo Guard | Arizona

Holt is another prospect stepping into a major role, heading to Arizona with expectations to replace a potential lottery pick.

His physical profile and slashing ability will remind Wildcats fans of Brayden Burries. Like Burries, Holt is a tenacious point-of-attack defender, an attribute that should translate immediately to both college and the NBA.

He has made noticeable strides as a shooter, and that development will be key. While he is not quite as polished with the ball in his hands as Burries, Holt brings many of the same intangibles.

Fresh off a Grind Session Championship alongside BYU commit Bruce Branch, Holt carried that momentum into Phoenix, posting 11 points and 4 assists.

Other Notable Performers

Deron Rippey Jr. - 6’2” 175 lbs | Point Guard | Duke

One of the most explosive point guards in the class, Rippey’s athleticism was on full display. If he gets a step, it is likely ending in a highlight. The big question is fit. Can he coexist with Cayden Boozer if Boozer returns? Neither is a proven shooter at this stage. Rippey finished with 7 points and 4 assists.

Cameron Williams - 6’11” 200 lbs | Forward | Duke

Williams passes the eye test immediately. Long, athletic, and fluid, he flashed perimeter shooting ability and projects as a versatile forward. He is still raw, but his tools are exactly what NBA teams like to bet on. He recorded 9 points on 3 of 8 shooting.

Jaxson Richardson - 6’6” 205 lbs | Wing | Alabama

Richardson made a smart decision heading to Alabama, where Nate Oats’ system should maximize his athleticism and push his perimeter development. The son of Jason Richardson, Jaxson may be even more explosive. He thrived in the open-floor setting, finishing with 13 points and multiple transition dunks.

Jason Crowe - 6’3” 170 lbs | Combo Guard | Missouri

Crowe came into the game with reputation of being a prolific scorer and did what he’s known for best. Crowe scored 16 points to lead all scorers. Crowe is the all time leading scorer in California public school history after averaging 43 points per game on his way to passing up Tounde Yessefou. Crowe is will need to adjust his shot selection in order to improve his draft stock

Final Thoughts

As expected, the McDonald’s All-American Game was not about structure. It was about flashes.

And there were plenty.

Tyran Stokes looks like the early frontrunner for the number one pick, while players like Jordan Smith Jr. and Caleb Holt showed they belong firmly in the top-tier conversation. The depth of the class may still be uncertain, but the foundation of high-level talent is clearly there.

Now the real evaluation begins when these players step into defined roles at the college level.

Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz had his most efficient game of the tournament, scoring 20 points and adding four assists as the Hawkeyes knocked off Nebraska. Keaton Wagler didn’t have his best shooting night, but still made an impact across the board, finishing with 13 points and 12 rebounds in a win over Houston.

As always, I evaluate prospects based on the totality of the season. That said, these tournament games still carry value. With Friday’s matchups ahead, prospects will have another opportunity to strengthen their case and perform in high-pressure moments.

Here are a few players I’ll be watching closely:

Braylon Mullins

UConn
Freshman
Wing
6’6” | 195
Age on draft night: 20.1

The Streaky Shooter Under the Spotlight

It’s been an up-and-down season for Braylon Mullins, who got off to a slow start due to an early ankle injury. At his best, Mullins has looked like a late lottery pick, especially with his ability to catch fire and knock down threes on the move. At other times, he has struggled with efficiency and keeping defenders in front of him.

On the season, Mullins is shooting just 33 percent from three. He’s been more effective shooting off the dribble, earning a reputation as someone defenders need to chase off the line, but his catch-and-shoot consistency has been an issue. He’s likely a better shooter than the 32.7 percent he’s currently posting, especially when factoring in his AAU track record where he converted 42 percent of his jumpers. Still, with 77 percent of his attempts coming from the perimeter, the concerns are real.

Defensively, Mullins gives effort and has produced counting stats, but he’s also been targeted. In the first round, Furman repeatedly put him in pick-and-roll actions to test his ability to defend in space. While the effort is there, he’s still susceptible to straight-line drives.

Michigan State may not test him as much in space due to their pace, but they defend at a high level and have the personnel to neutralize UConn’s size with Tarris Reed Jr. If UConn is going to advance, they may need a big performance from Mullins.

Jeremy Fears Jr.

Michigan State
Sophomore
Point Guard
6’2” | 190
Age on draft night: 21.2

Old School Point Guard, Modern Impact

I’ve had Fears slotted as a late first-round pick for most of the season, and nothing has changed. Even with the depth of guard play nationally, Fears has a strong argument as the best point guard in college basketball.

He’s averaging 15.3 points and 9.4 assists per game for a Michigan State team that isn’t loaded with NBA talent. Fears is a true floor general. He controls the offense, throws timely lobs, pushes the pace in transition, and scores in crafty ways.

He’s putting together one of the best point guard seasons in program history, which says a lot considering players like Magic Johnson, Mateen Cleaves, and Cassius Winston have come through East Lansing.

This Sweet 16 matchup isn’t about proving he’s an NBA player. It’s another opportunity to show why his intangibles translate. I’ve compared him before to TJ McConnell. Both are pure point guards who thrive off pace, decision-making, and pull-up shooting. McConnell has carved out a long NBA career, and Fears has a similar blueprint.

Aday Mara

Michigan
Junior
Big
7’3” | 255
Age on draft night: 21.2

From Question Mark to First Round Lock

I mentioned being early on the Jeremy Fears Jr first-round conversation. With Aday Mara, I was on the opposite side.

Coming into the season, I had real doubts about Mara as a prospect, especially after two underwhelming seasons at UCLA where he averaged just five points and three rebounds per game. But a change of scenery has made all the difference. The move to Michigan has revitalized his draft stock, and he now looks like a clear first-round pick.

Timing matters. With the recent success of bigs like Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey, the league has shown there’s still value in size when paired with skill. Mara fits that mold.

I believe Mara is Michigan’s best NBA prospect, even ahead of Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson. His combination of size, rim protection, and passing gives him the edge. The biggest concern I had was his mobility, and to this point, he has done a good job addressing that.

Now comes the real test. Alabama plays at one of the fastest paces in the country and spreads the floor with an NBA-style offense. Mara has shown he can defend in space, but he hasn’t faced anything quite like this yet.

Nate Ament

Tennessee
Freshman
Wing
6’10” | 210
Age on draft night: 19.5

The Balance Between Potential and Production

Ament bounced back from a rough opening game with a 16-point performance in a win over Virginia. Still, it was a typical Ament outing. Missed layups, contested jumpers, and a heavy reliance on free throws.

Tennessee keeps advancing, and ultimately that’s what matters most. But from a scouting perspective, you’d like to see more consistency and efficiency, especially this deep into March.

A big performance may be necessary against Iowa State. The status of Joshua Jefferson is uncertain, but the Cyclones are well-coached and will defend at a high level regardless. Tamin Lipsey is capable of making life difficult for Tennessee’s guards, which could shift more responsibility onto Ament.

If matched up with Killyan Toure, Ament will have a size advantage, but Toure’s on-ball pressure could still present problems. One of Ament’s biggest issues has been creating space and consistently getting to the rim, and this matchup may not make that any easier.

I still view Ament as a top-20 pick who will likely scale into a more defined role at the next level. But this is the type of stage where a signature performance could elevate his stock even further.

This stage is not about overreactions, it’s about context. We are not rewriting evaluations off one game, but we are paying attention to how these players respond when the stakes rise. Who adjusts, who produces, and who can impact winning in different ways. Because as the tournament moves forward, the game tightens, the pressure builds, and for NBA scouts, this is where small details start to carry a lot more weight.

I’m not someone who believes a bad NCAA Tournament should tank a player’s draft stock.

One or two games should not outweigh a 30-plus game sample size. That said, this stage still matters. It shows how players respond to pressure, adjust on the fly, and handle adversity.

The Sweet 16 means you are just two wins away from becoming a legend, and this is where evaluators start paying even closer attention to the details.

Dailyn Swain

Texas
Junior
Wing
6’8” | 225
Age on draft night: 20.9

The Engine Behind Texas’ March Run

Swain has carried Texas all season and now deep into March. The Longhorns barely made it into the field, needing to win a First Four game just to reach the main bracket, but since then they have just kept winning. Swain has adjusted his game in real time.

His scoring has dipped from 17.7 to 12.7 points per game, but the playmaking jump stands out as he is now up to 5.3 assists per game from 3.4. That evolution into a true point forward has been key. His ability to impact the game without scoring is what makes him intriguing at the next level. He can create, defend, and play within different roles, which are traits that translate quickly to NBA rotations.

With Purdue’s size likely neutralizing Texas inside, the pressure will be on Swain to control the game if the Longhorns want to keep their run alive.

Bennett Stirtz

Iowa
Senior
Point Guard
6’4” | 190
Age on draft night: 22.7

Can Stirtz Find His Rhythm?

Iowa’s Sweet 16 run has been one of the biggest surprises in the tournament, and Bennett Stirtz is the engine behind it. A former Division II player, Stirtz has become one of the most efficient guards in the country and an analytics favorite thanks to his shooting, finishing, and decision making.

However, the tournament has not been kind to him so far. After averaging 20.2 points per game in the regular season, he is shooting just 27 percent from the field and 16 percent from three. Teams have pressured him and taken away his space, exposing some concerns about his ability to consistently create offense against higher-level defenders.

I have had questions about his projection as a primary NBA point guard, as he may be better suited as a secondary ball handler. Still, he has had success against Nebraska this season, averaging 18 points per game, and he feels due for a bounce-back performance.

Darius Acuff

Arkansas
Freshman
Combo Guard
6’3” | 190
Age on draft night: 19.5

Lottery Talent Facing Real Resistance

Acuff has been one of the most polished offensive players in the country all season. He leads Arkansas in both scoring and assists and continues to deliver in big moments, including a 36-point performance in the second round. His shot making, pace, and control stand out, but the questions come on the defensive end.

After allowing 30 points to High Point’s Rob Martin, concerns about how he will hold up defensively at the NBA level remain valid, especially in a league that targets weak defenders. His matchup against Arizona presents his toughest challenge yet, with multiple strong perimeter defenders and size waiting at the rim.

If Acuff can produce efficiently against that level of defense, it will say a lot about his readiness and reinforce his case as a lottery-level talent.

Keaton Wagler

Illinois
Freshman
Wing
6’6” | 185
Age on draft night: 19.4

Wagler’s Toughest Matchup of the Year?

Wagler is a player I am higher on than most. He is not going to overwhelm anyone athletically, but he makes up for it with craft, shooting, and feel for the game. He creates space well, has deep range, and is comfortable operating off the dribble. Still, there are real concerns about his lack of explosiveness, strength, and inefficiency on mid-range attempts.

His matchup against Houston will be a major test, as they are one of the most physical teams in the country. With strong perimeter defenders and rim protection behind them, Wagler will need to rely on skill and decision making to be effective. This is the kind of game that can either validate belief in his long-term upside or amplify concerns.

Kingston Flemings

Houston
Freshman
Point Guard
6’4” | 190
Age on draft night: 19.4

Can Flemings Take Over?

Flemings may not always dominate statistically, but he consistently impacts the game. He opened the tournament with 18 points before taking on a smaller role in a blowout win over Texas A&M. That balance is part of what makes Houston so effective, but this matchup against Illinois could require more from him. Illinois has the size to challenge him at the rim, an area where he has struggled recently.

Flemings has elite speed and the ability to break down defenses, but he often plays within the flow rather than forcing the issue. The key questions will be whether he can finish through contact, draw fouls, and take control if Houston needs a late-game creator.

This stage is not about overreactions, it is about context. We are not rewriting evaluations based on one game, but we are watching closely to see who adjusts, who handles pressure, and who rises when the margins get tighter.

Because in the Sweet 16, the game slows down, the spotlight gets brighter, and for NBA scouts, this is where tendencies start to look like truths.

We’ve already had our first set of First Four games, with Howard taking down Maryland-Baltimore County and Texas outlasting North Carolina State. The Longhorns survived a late barrage of threes behind two highly contested midrange jumpers from veteran guard Tramon Mark.

Plenty of players will earn local legend status with their performances over the next few weeks, but a select few will have the opportunity to put themselves firmly on NBA radars for the 2026 or 2027 NBA Draft.

Allen Graves

6’9” 225 lbs | Forward | Santa Clara
11.6 PPG | 6.5 REB | 1.8 AST

Graves has become something of an analytics darling and is generating real buzz as a potential prospect in this year’s draft. I’ve written about Graves before, but he now has a major opportunity to prove himself against the 7-seed Kentucky Wildcats.

This game will draw plenty of attention from both NBA scouts and college programs monitoring the transfer portal. Graves would immediately become one of the hottest names if he chose to enter.

He’s essentially the store-brand version of Cameron Boozer, a power forward who can score in the post while also facilitating for others. Like Boozer, he stretches the floor and is shooting 42 percent from three. Unlike Boozer, Graves provides strong defensive impact, averaging 2.9 stocks per game.

The biggest question is his athleticism. That will be tested against a high-level SEC opponent.

Bruce Thornton

6’2” 215 lbs | Point Guard | Ohio State

20.2 PPG | 5.1 REB | 3.9 AST

Ohio State enters the tournament as an 8-seed and will face TCU in the always tricky 8-9 matchup. This marks the program’s first tournament appearance since the 2021-2022 season and gives second-year head coach Jake Diebler a chance at his first NCAA Tournament win.

Thornton has the statistical profile of a late first-round pick in most draft classes, but a loaded point guard crop has overshadowed his production. He’s a methodical guard with a playing style similar to Jalen Brunson. He’s not the most explosive athlete, but he consistently gets the job done.

Thornton thrives in pick-and-roll situations and has a strong midrange game, using his physicality to control defenders. A deep tournament run could bring him the attention he deserves.

Amare Bynum

6’8” 220 lbs | Forward | Ohio State

9.7 PPG | 4.8 REB | 1.1 AST

Bynum, on the other hand, is more of a long-term play and likely a 2027 prospect. He already has the frame and athleticism of a pro but needs more experience. He closed the season strong, averaging 12.4 points and 6 rebounds over Ohio State’s final five games while the team went 4-1.

A strong tournament showing could accelerate his trajectory toward first-round consideration.

Zuby Ejiofor

6’9” 245 lbs | Center | St. John’s

16.3 PPG | 7.1 REB | 3.5 AST

I have to show love to a local product. I remember watching Zuby lead Garland High School on a deep playoff run before falling to Duncanville, a team that featured future NBA players Anthony Black and Ron Holland.

That experience shaped his game. Zuby learned how to read loaded defenses and protect the rim without fouling, skills that still show up today.

Now, he’s firmly in the conversation as a potential second-round pick. While slightly undersized for a traditional NBA center, he brings many qualities teams value in a rotation big.

If there’s one area holding him back, it’s rebounding. Additionally, we may not have seen his full potential as a vertical lob threat due to St. John’s inconsistent point guard play and limited usage as a roll man.

Donovan Dent

6’2” 185 lbs | Point Guard | UCLA

13.5 PPG | 2.9 REB | 7.6 AST

After three strong seasons at New Mexico, Dent transferred closer to home to UCLA, looking to elevate his NBA stock against Big Ten competition.

His season has been up and down, but his playmaking gives UCLA real upset potential. Dent reminds me of Jamaal Tinsley, a below-the-rim guard with an elite handle and exceptional vision.

He’s at his best orchestrating pick-and-roll and balancing scoring with facilitation. UCLA is 10-2 when he scores more than 15 points, a clear indicator of his impact.

The concern is shooting. Like Tinsley, Dent is not a consistent perimeter threat, which could limit his NBA outlook. If he reaches the league, it will likely be in a reserve role similar to Jordan McLaughlin, but he will need to prove he can keep defenses honest.

Cayden Boozer

6’4” 205 lbs | Point Guard | Duke

7.1 PPG | 2.1 REB | 2.8 AST

We know one of the Boozer twins will be in the NBA soon, but Cayden’s path is less certain.

With starting point guard Caleb Foster sidelined due to injury, Boozer has stepped into a larger role. He made three consecutive starts during Duke’s ACC Tournament run, helping lead the team to a title.

Primarily known as a playmaker, Boozer averaged 13.7 points during that stretch while showing flashes of confidence and control.

Foster’s status remains uncertain, which gives Boozer another opportunity to build momentum. His biggest area for growth is shooting, as he has struggled from three all season.

Still, his size and feel suggest he could develop into a Cory Joseph-type guard at the next level. With another five-star point guard arriving next season, his long-term situation at Duke is worth monitoring.

Cruz Davis

6’3” 170 lbs | Point Guard | Hofstra

20.2 PPG | 3.7 REB | 4.6 AST

If you follow me, you already know how I feel about Cruz Davis.

The lefty guard is legit and has a chance to shine as Hofstra takes on Alabama following its CAA Tournament run. Under head coach Speedy Claxton, Davis has developed into one of the best shooters in the country.

He’s dangerous both off the catch and off the dribble, capable of punishing switches and dissecting traps with high-level passing using either hand.

If there was ever a stage to make a name, this is it. Alabama leads the nation in scoring and will be without starting guard Aden Holloway, increasing the upset potential.

Davis will likely go head-to-head with projected first-round pick Labaron Philon. If he rises to the moment, this could be a defining performance.

Ugonna Onyenso

7’0” 245 lbs | Center | Virginia

6.7 PPG | 5.0 REB | 3.0 BLK

Onyenso looked like Bill Russell during the ACC Tournament. That might not even be an exaggeration.

He recorded 21 blocks in three games. Not twelve. Twenty-one.

After stops at Kentucky and Kansas State, the 6’11” center has firmly entered NBA conversations. He fits the mold of a rim-running, shot-blocking big and averages three blocks in just 18.5 minutes per game.

His 17.7 percent block rate ranks among elite company, alongside names like Walker Kessler, Hassan Whiteside, and Larry Sanders.

His defensive performance against projected top-three pick Cameron Boozer may have solidified his status as a second-round prospect.

If Virginia advances past Wright State, Onyenso will have more opportunities to build on his momentum in a region loaded with NBA talent.

After highlighting these prospects throughout Parts I through III, the NCAA Tournament now becomes the ultimate test to see who can translate potential into production on the biggest stage.

At the same time, several other prospects now face uncertain paths after their seasons came to an end, while Montana guard Money Williams is quietly making a case as one of the draft’s most intriguing sleepers.

AJ Dybantsa’s 40-Point Night Sends Another Message in the Race for No. 1

Just a few days after I published an article breaking down the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, AJ Dybantsa delivered a performance that felt like a response to that very debate.

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In what has been a historic season for freshman talent in college basketball, the race for number one is approaching its final stages, at least from the standpoint of available games to evaluate talent. The three-man race has been exciting and different from years past, as each player has delivered signature moments that strengthened his case to be the first name called in June.

North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson did everything he could to make it a four-man race. Before his season was cut short by a broken thumb, Wilson averaged 19.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 2.9 stocks in 24 games. He’s an athletic dunking machine with a highlight tape second to none. His signature performance came in a home win against rival Duke and former AAU teammate Cameron Boozer. Wilson scored 23 points in that game and made several defensive plays that briefly made it feel like this might truly be a four-man race.

Still, I believe Wilson is the fourth best prospect in the class, and in a normal draft he would likely go no worse than second overall.

But this is not a normal draft.

The big three of AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, and Darryn Peterson have delivered all season long. Dybantsa leads the nation in scoring regardless of classification. Boozer will likely win ACC Player of the Year and has a strong case for National Player of the Year. Peterson has endured the most uneven season of the three due to availability, but he is still producing an efficient 20 points per game.

So who should be number one? Let’s dig into the numbers.

1. Cameron Boozer: Historic Production and the Safest Bet in the Draft

Duke
Freshman
Big
6’9” | 250
Age on draft night: 18.9

Boozer has been the most consistent of the three prospects, with bad games essentially nonexistent. In a recent game against Virginia, Boozer shot just 3 of 9 from the field but still finished with 18 points, nine rebounds, and four assists. That is the type of production that defines his season.

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Just like in Part 1, I’ve mocked each player to a team and, following in the footsteps of my brother Rafael, added my own twist on how each prospect could realistically fit with the franchise I paired them with. The top 14 may grab the headlines, but there’s real value — and real intrigue — in picks 15 through 30.

15. Brayden Burries

Arizona
Freshman
Guard
6’4” | 205
Age on draft night: 20.7

Mock Draft 1.0 Rank: NR

Burries’ freshman season started slow, but he turned the corner in game six and reminded everyone why he was a top high school player. The former McDonald’s All-American is averaging 15.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.6 assists for an Arizona team that remains among the best in the country.

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The process of positioning for a top lottery pick has started earlier than expected, with plenty of “tank-influenced” moves happening before the February trade deadline. We’ve seen the league hand out fines to the Pacers and the Jazz. We’ve seen social and traditional media alike weigh in on the idea of tanking. Some understand the process; others think it messes with the integrity of the game.

Me? I think you do what you need to do to improve your team. If that means taking a longer look at backend rotation guys a little earlier, why not?

So is this draft class worth tanking for?

YES.

Even in this exercise of putting together a mock, I honestly feel like there are three guys who would be first-round picks in most drafts. Picks four through six could also have All-Star upside, and there are a ton of rotation pieces scattered throughout the class.

Like last time, I went to Tankathon and hit “sim” on the draft lottery. My apologies if your team didn’t land where you wanted them to, but here we go.

Part 2 drops tomorrow, covering picks 15–30 and the rest of the first round.

1. AJ Dybantsa

BYU
Freshman
Wing
6’9” | 210
Age on draft night: 19.3

Mock Draft 1.0 Rank: 2

In what has largely been a three-man race, Dybantsa comes in as the number one player in the draft. The combination of scoring, athleticism, and improved playmaking is too much to ignore. Dybantsa is the first freshman to lead the nation in scoring since Trae Young did it in 2017.

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With NBA scouts scattered across Moody Coliseum, Mikel Brown Jr. had another opportunity to prove he’s more than just part of a loaded class—he’s leading it at his position.

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We expect to see the big names in March. Cameron Boozer, AJ Dybantsa, and Darryn Peterson’s teams are essentially tournament locks. The same can be said for Kingston Flemings and Caleb Wilson. Regardless of how each individual performs on the biggest stage, NBA front offices have been collecting intel all season and in many cases for years. One bad game in March should not dramatically sway evaluations.

But what about the sleepers? For players operating outside the spotlight, the tournament can be a launching pad. A strong performance against a high major opponent can change a career overnight. CJ McCollum became a household name after dropping 30 points in Lehigh’s first round upset of Duke. But before you get to March, you have to take care of business in February. Let me tell you about three prospects who are trending in the right direction.

Roman Domon

6’9” 225 lbs | Forward | Murray State

I have been preparing to write this article for about a week now. In my research, I came across Domon and was immediately intrigued by the tape. But it was also the weekend of the Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa matchup, so I had to put it off for a few days. Then a Twitter mutual, Arman Jovic (@pdtscouting), dropped a highlight tape and like most of his work, the internet ran with it.

Highlights can lie, but in Domon’s case, the tape holds up. The kid can play. Domon is a lanky ball handler with an impressive blend of size, creativity, and shooting. The 6’9” Frenchman can create his own shot using a deep bag of crossover dribbles to generate space for layups or pull up jumpers. Sometimes it is a step back three, other times it is a fading midrange jumper. He is comfortable scoring at all three levels.

In just 22 minutes per game, Domon is Murray State’s second leading scorer, averaging 13.7 points, five rebounds, and 1.5 assists. He does carry a negative assist to turnover ratio, but throughout his international career he has shown positive playmaking efficiency. Many of the turnovers come from creativity rather than a lack of handle.

I am buying Domon as a legitimate NBA prospect. Even if he is not given the same freedom as a handler at the next level, his shooting gives him a clear pathway. He is hitting 38.7 percent of his threes on three attempts per game. According to Synergy, Domon is converting 48 percent of his unguarded jumpers and 42 percent of his off the dribble attempts. The question is sustainability. Prior to Murray State, he shot 28 percent from three over 30 games with BCM Gravelines Dunkerque and just 21 percent from deep with France’s U20 team.

Still, players with his size, handle, and shooting versatility usually get a chance. It feels like a matter of when, not if. Murray State currently sits second in the Missouri Valley Conference. If the Racers make noise in March, Domon could become a household name quickly.

Allen Graves

6’9” 220 lbs | Power Forward | Santa Clara

Graves is another name gaining traction in scouting circles, especially among what I like to call the Calculator Crew. I am not an analytics first evaluator, but I do not ignore the numbers. I use them to confirm what I see on film. Ultimately, we are all trying to answer the same question, can the guy play.

In Graves’ case, the answer is yes. He is a plug and play forward who impacts the game in multiple ways. Offensively, he can space the floor or score on the block. He rebounds, passes, and plays within himself. He is not a high end athlete, but he is athletic enough and more importantly, he has great timing and feel. Defensively, he is a legitimate rim protector and a physical presence at the point of attack, with the foot speed to survive on the perimeter.

Graves is averaging 10 points, seven rebounds, nearly two assists, and three stocks per game in just 22 minutes. The 6’9” redshirt freshman is one of the most productive freshmen in the country on a per minute basis. He is also shooting 39 percent from three on two attempts per game. There is always room in the league for high IQ bigs who make the right play. Double him and he will find shooters. Close out late and he will knock it down. Run him off the line and he will keep the offense flowing.

The questions come at the NBA level. Graves is an average athlete by league standards, and while he is aggressive defensively, he will need to adjust against superior athletes. Offensively, his lack of burst shows at the rim. He is converting just 52 percent of his layup attempts. Developing a reliable push shot in short roll situations would help.

Some believe Graves is a 2026 NBA Draft prospect. That remains to be seen. But his feel for the game is real. Santa Clara is tied atop the West Coast Conference standings, and if the Broncos punch a tournament ticket, Graves is a name worth remembering.

Shelton Henderson

6’6” 240 lbs | Forward | Miami

Henderson might be the most physically intriguing prospect in this group. At first glance, he looks like an NFL tight end playing basketball. He is a rare blend of power and quickness. He looks like Scoot Henderson, just three inches taller. But Shelton is not just a run and dunk athlete. He has real ball skills and creativity off the bounce.

Henderson uses his physique to his advantage, rocking defenders with his handle before creating space with his shoulders. He is shooting 67 percent on two point attempts and averaging 14.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists for one of the ACC’s surprises. Under first year head coach Jai Lucas, Henderson and the Hurricanes are tied for fifth in the conference as they push toward their first NCAA tournament appearance in three seasons.

So why is Henderson not on draft radars? Right now, the tools outweigh the impact. Defensively, he is average, producing just 1.2 stocks per game. While stocks are not everything, Henderson often struggles at the point of attack. That said, there are flashes where he stays in front of guards and uses his strength to shut down drives. If he locks in, he should be able to defend multiple positions at the next level. Lu Dort followed a similar path, carving out value through physicality and versatility.

Offensively, the shooting is the swing skill. Henderson is shooting 33 percent from three on low volume and just 58 percent from the free throw line, despite generating a good chunk of his offense there. His low three point attempt rate combined with poor free throw shooting makes spacing a concern. While he has improved since his high school and EYBL days, the shot remains a question mark.

Henderson is an if prospect. If he commits defensively, he is an NBA player. If the shooting comes around, he is a potential first round pick in the 2027 NBA Draft. The blueprint exists by following the path of players like Lu Dort or PJ Tucker, but execution will determine everything.

It’s no secret that the 2026 NBA Draft is loaded with freshman talent. At the top are players with legitimate All-Star and All-NBA upside in Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, Duke’s Cameron Boozer, and BYU’s AJ Dybantsa. Those three have been the consensus picks to hear their names called first in June. While we don’t yet know the exact order, it’s safe to say they sit firmly atop draft boards—at least at this point in the season.

Then there’s the next crop of freshmen who have had their moments while making strong cases to be lottery picks. We’ve seen dynamic point guard play from Houston’s Kingston Flemings and Arkansas’ Darius Acuff. Caleb Wilson is making his case to be the highest-drafted North Carolina Tar Heel since Harrison Barnes went seventh overall in 2012. Rising up draft boards out of virtually nowhere has been Illinois guard Keaton Wagler. Not to mention Tennessee’s Nate Ament, Arizona’s Koa Peat, and Louisville’s Mikel Brown. There’s an argument that this is the most talented freshman class in years.

With so much attention rightfully paid to the youngsters, several talented upperclassmen or sophomores are still flying under the radar—players I believe have untapped potential. Yes, you can still get better even if you aren’t a one-and-done.

Jaylon Tyson played three years of college basketball and would likely be selected higher than some younger prospects picked ahead of him if the 2024 Draft were redone. From that same class, a similar argument could be made for the 38th pick, Ajay Mitchell.

The draft is always a crapshoot, and perceived upside often goes unfulfilled.

So why not talk about some safer bets among experienced players?

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It has been a very long time, if ever, since we have seen three prospects with a legitimate case for being selected first overall. The closest comparison to the 2026 Draft class would be the 2022 NBA Draft, when the Orlando Magic selected Paolo Banchero from Duke, followed by the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets taking Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren and Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr. I felt that particular draft ultimately became a two man race between Banchero and Holmgren.

This year is different in several ways. Not only are there three players who could realistically be number one in almost any draft, but once those top three are off the board, the rest of the class is loaded with high level talent from an extremely productive freshman group. Houston’s Kingston Flemings and Illinois’ Keaton Wagler each had historic performances this past weekend, with Flemings scoring 42 in a loss and Wagler dropping 46 in a road win. If there was ever a time for an organization to own multiple first round picks, this is it.

While names like Wagler, Flemings, and North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson continue to build strong lottery cases, the cream of the crop remains Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, and Duke’s Cameron Boozer.

In Part III of this series, I will outline why each player still has a very real argument for going number one.

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It’s also important to note that it’s far too early to label anyone a “second-round gem.” Draft processes are fluid, narratives change quickly, and players rise and fall as seasons unfold. Instead, this piece focuses on players I consistently see mocked outside the top 30—or not mocked at all—who I believe are clearly draftable, deserving of more attention, and capable of working their way into firmer first-round conversations.

History shows that players fitting this profile often exist well before draft night. Around this point in their respective cycles, Nikola Jokić wasn’t viewed as anything more than a stashable big man and ultimately fell to 41st overall. Ajay Mitchell wasn’t carrying first-round buzz this time last year before sliding to 38th, and Maxime Raynaud quietly fell to 42nd despite being viewed internally by some teams as a clear rotation-caliber center. None of those players were consensus top-30 prospects during the early stages of their draft evaluations—but all were very much draftable.

The league has also changed. NIL money has made it easier than ever for players to return to school without sacrificing financial security, reshaping the draft landscape. A player who may have gone in the 20s a few years ago can now stay in college, develop, and re-enter the process with legitimate lottery upside. As a result, several draftable prospects are being pushed down boards—or left off them entirely—for now.

This isn’t a ranking, and it isn’t a prediction of where these players will land. It’s simply a look at prospects who have gone under the radar, lack widespread first-round buzz, and yet consistently flash traits NBA teams value. If the draft were held today, these are names I believe deserve to be part of the conversation.

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There’s a difference between watching film and being in the building—and SMU’s matchup against Virginia Tech was another reminder of why live scouting still matters.

Continuing a series I started earlier this season, I’m fortunate enough to have season-long media credentials to attend Southern Methodist basketball games. With SMU now in its second season in the Atlantic Coast Conference, I’ve had the opportunity to see some of the top talent in the country live and in person.

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